2Q19 CME Bitcoin Futures Analysis: Growing institutional interest? Not quite

According to CME Group, its bitcoin futures product cracked yet another all-time record in both volumes and open interest, with more than $1.7 billion in notional value traded on Friday, June 26 (surpassing the previous record by more than 30%). While CME Group finished the update with a proclamation that "institutional interest continues to build," for its bitcoin futures product, weekly CFTC COT report data actually tells a more nuanced story: less institutional interest, and higher concentration of notional value (both long and short) within the largest bitcoin futures traders.

Weekly CFTC COT reports (published Friday, and using Tuesday's closing data for that week) shows that the estimated notional value of CFTC regulated bitcoin futures (combined CME and CBOE historical values) has surged more than 270% since 1Q19, vs. a 150% increase in the price of bitcoin. What's even more impressive about the record notional value of open interest is that the data that hit the tape came before Wednesday's bitcoin price surge (which saw bitcoin flirt with $14,000 highs).