Ethereum researcher Justin Drake calls for 'bunker mode' planning over private key recovery risk

Justin Drake, a researcher at the Ethereum Foundation, has called on the blockchain industry to start planning for what he described as "bunker mode." He recommended moving crypto assets to fresh addresses that keep their public keys hidden behind a hash.

Drake said this is his personal recommendation and did not say that existing cryptography has already been broken. He also warned crypto holders not to panic or rush, saying a rushed move could do more harm than good.

Drake's concern is that the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, or ECDSA, could potentially be broken before "q-day," when quantum computers become powerful enough to break widely used public-key cryptography.

Bitcoin and Ethereum use ECDSA to confirm that transactions were approved by the correct private key holder. Drake described an ECDSA break as being able to recover a private key quickly, for example within one week using available hardware such as a large group of GPUs.

Drake said it is now reasonable to prepare for this possibility, with the worst case potentially coming in "months not years."

Current Ethereum guidance says quantum computers cannot break the network's cryptography today and users do not need to take action. Drake also noted advances in artificial or super intelligence as another risk that could help find a non-quantum way to break elliptic-curve cryptography.

Moving funds to fresh addresses

Drake recommended that crypto holders, starting with large and "sophisticated" ones, move most of their funds to fresh addresses. Once an address signs a transaction, its public key can become visible. Drake said that after signing, any funds left in the address should also be moved to a new address.

Drake called on Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex and Tether to consider stronger protection for their cold storage. He also pointed to Project Eleven's Bitcoin Risq List, which tracks bitcoin addresses that hold funds and have exposed public keys. The list covers more than 14 million addresses.

For wallets holding less than 50 BTC, Drake said there is some protection from what he called "Satoshi's shield." He pointed to around 20,000 exposed addresses linked to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto that each hold 50 BTC. His point was that attackers could target these addresses before smaller wallets.

Why Drake is warning now

Drake linked his warning to recent progress in AI-generated mathematics. He pointed to OpenAI's publication this week of 722 mathematical manuscripts produced by an internal model. Drake described the release as evidence that "mathematical superintelligence is upon us."

He said elliptic curves could be more exposed to new mathematical discoveries because they have more mathematical structure than hash functions. Drake also raised the possibility that a new algorithm running on regular computers could one day break elliptic curves and RSA, another widely used form of public-key cryptography.

Drake said safely moving out of "bunker mode" would require what he called "post-AI cryptography."

He said he prefers security based on hash functions instead of mathematical systems. Drake said Ethereum's draft roadmap already moves toward hash-based cryptography and formal verification to prepare for quantum risks.

The Funding newsletter:  Stay on top of the latest crypto VC funding and M&A deals, news, and trends with my free bi-monthly newsletter, The Funding. Sign up here!