Bernstein sees 78% upside for Robinhood as tokenization, prediction markets expand its crypto business

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating on Robinhood Markets with a $160 price target, arguing the company's crypto business is evolving from trading toward tokenization infrastructure.

Robinhood shares closed at $89.84 Wednesday, the basis for Bernstein's 78% upside calculation. The stock later declined 3.6% to close at $86.60 on Thursday, according to The Block's stock price page, implying about 85% upside to the brokerage's unchanged $160 price target.

In a note to clients, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said Robinhood Chain, tokenized stocks, Bitstamp, and Robinhood Earn represent Robinhood's next crypto growth drivers beyond trading. 

Robinhood Chain has generated more than $12 billion in decentralized exchange volume and surpassed 150 million transactions since launch. Robinhood Earn has attracted more than $200 million in deposits, while Stock Tokens are now available in more than 120 countries through Robinhood Wallet, the analysts added. 

Meanwhile, Robinhood's Rothera exchange, which went live in June, has processed more than 3.5 billion contracts to date, including 2.1 billion in the second quarter, generating $17 million in revenue during the period. The exchange is now the third-largest in the U.S., according to Bernstein.

“Management expects a greater share of prediction market flow to migrate to Rothera over time, while continuing to distribute event contracts from third-party exchanges and retaining the longer-term optionality to offer Rothera as a B2B platform for other FCMs (Futures Commission Merchant),” the note read. 

Event-contract revenue reached $156 million in the second quarter, overtaking crypto trading's $100 million as crypto volumes eased across the industry. The analysts cut their 2026 crypto trading revenue estimate by 49% on weaker industry volumes.

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The analysts also outlined key risks to their investment thesis, including potential regulatory changes affecting Robinhood's payment-for-order-flow model and crypto trading business. 

They noted that the SEC has historically taken a strict approach toward digital asset trading platforms and that uncertainty over whether some crypto tokens qualify as securities remains an ongoing risk. They also said the digital asset sector remains relatively young and continues to evolve.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Certain affiliates of Bernstein act as market makers or liquidity providers in the equity securities of Robinhood.