CryptoQuant says bitcoin must clear resistance at $81,700 to confirm new bull market

Bitcoin's outlook remains bullish, but it needs to clear resistance at $81,700 to confirm a new bull market, according to CryptoQuant.

The onchain analytics firm said in a Friday report that bitcoin's 24% rally over two weeks had stalled. The price had been moving between $76,000 and $82,000 and is currently hovering at around $77,000.

"The trend is still constructive, but a wall of resistance stands in the way," Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant's head of research, said in the report.

Resistance levels range from $77,100 to $88,700

Moreno sees resistance between $77,100 and $80,200, where long-term holders sold as much as 539,000 BTC over a 30-day period this year. Moreno calls that zone the "nearest and heaviest on-chain supply resistance above the current price." 

Following that zone, the first major technical resistance level is bitcoin's 365-day moving average, currently around $81,700, Moreno said.

Historically, bitcoin bull markets have "officially" started when the price closes above this average, Moreno noted. He said a clear move above it could confirm a new bull market, or else bitcoin could keep trading in a range.

The next level is $83,600, based on CryptoQuant's "3x Metcalfe band." The model estimates bitcoin's value based on network activity, including active addresses.

Moreno said these bands have marked important levels in previous cycles. The 3x band was at $138,000 when bitcoin hit its $126,000 all-time high in October 2025. The 2x band was close to bitcoin's price when it first reached $100,000 in December 2024.

Moreno also sees possible selling pressure around $88,700. This is the upper level of CryptoQuant's trader realized price model, which tracks the average price paid by active traders.

"The upper band marks where trader profit-taking has historically emerged," Moreno said.

Bitcoin support levels

If bitcoin moves lower, Moreno sees support around $70,000, its 200-day moving average. He also sees support between $62,000 and $65,000, where long-term holders bought about 476,000 BTC this year.

"The overall picture remains bullish; Bitcoin simply needs to digest the overhead supply and break its valuation ceilings before a new leg up can develop," Moreno concluded.

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