Su Zhu says his 'supercycle' price thesis was 'regrettably wrong'

Three Arrows Capital co-founder Su Zhu has admitted that his "supercycle" price thesis and projection that bitcoin could hit $2.5 million hasn't played out as expected.

"Supercycle price thesis was regrettably wrong, but crypto will still thrive and change the world every day," he said on Twitter today.

The supercycle was an idea pushed by Zhu that suggested the crypto market would gradually rise during this market cycle, avoiding a sustained bear market.


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In an interview on the UpOnly podcast in February 2021, Zhu suggested that bitcoin's price could go as high as $2.5 million per coin. That's if bitcoin were to capture the same market value as gold.

Yet bitcoin's price has fallen from about $50,000 when that interview was broadcast to below $30,000. During that time, the total crypto market cap has declined from $2.8 trillion to $1.2 trillion, while prices of various crypto assets — including non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and metaverse land — have also swung dramatically.

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Tim is the Editor-In-Chief of The Block. Prior to joining The Block, Tim was a news editor at Decrypt. He has earned a bachelor's degree in philosophy from the University of York and studied news journalism at Press Association Training. Follow him on X @Timccopeland.