Cryptocurrency derivatives exchange FTX has added a new futures contract, TRUMP-2020 (TRUMP), for users to monetize their prediction of the 2020 U.S. presidential election results.
According to FTX’s Thursday announcement, the TRUMP future will expire to $1 in the case that Donald Trump gets re-elected in the upcoming U.S. presidential election, and expire to $0 otherwise.
Any candidate to receive 270 or more electoral votes will be considered elected, the announcement said. And if all major media – The New York Times, 538, 270towin, Fox, and CNN – have projected a certain candidate to be the winner before all states release their official vote counts, FTX will settle the contract accordingly.
TRUMP works the same way as all other futures on the exchange, the announcement noted. Users can go long or short given their own estimation of President Trump’s chance for re-election. Trading fees are calculated based on users’ base fee rates and the price of the contract. Profit and loss are settled in USD.
“The price of one contract of TRUMP should be equal to the probability that Trump wins reelection,” the announcement explained. “So if you think there's a 52% chance of Trump winning, then TRUMP should trade at $0.52; buying below there would be good, as would selling above $0.52.”
Notably, trading on FTX is not available in the U.S. and TRUMP cannot be traded by residents of the U.S., E.U., U.K, Hong Kong, Singapore, and other prohibited jurisdiction.