Bernstein says Circle's growth cycle can continue without the Clarity Act, sees 59% upside

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating and $140 price target on Circle Internet Group (CRCL), saying the company’s growth cycle can continue even if the Clarity Act does not pass.

Circle shares surged more than 5% Friday to close at $87.98, according to The Block's CRCL price page. Bernstein's $140 price target implies approximately 59% upside from that price level.

In a note to clients on Monday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said bitcoin and stablecoins are both beneficiaries of what they described as a macro regime shift, with BTC benefiting from renewed demand for “hard assets” and stablecoins absorbing increased Treasury bill supply.

They expect Circle's growth to be driven by a shift in the macro regime, real-world blockchain capital markets, stablecoin payment adoption, and emerging use of stablecoins for agentic payments.

Circle's USDC has added about $1.7 billion to its supply over the past week after almost six months of sideways decline, the analysts noted, adding that the stablecoin is used as collateral across decentralized finance, tokenized equities, real-world-asset perpetual futures, and prediction markets.

Notably, Circle holds about 80% of decentralized-exchange trading and finance volumes, according to the note. At the same time, Circle's Agent Stack, launched in May, is now home to more than 900 paid services, with 99% of x402 agent-payment volume settling in USDC.

"We believe, this growth cycle is independent of the Clarity Act passing in the September session," the analysts wrote. "We believe, the SEC/CFTC intervention would accelerate if the Senate does not support Clarity in the Sept. 15 vote."

Meanwhile, adjusted stablecoin transaction volume, excluding bots and high-frequency activity, reached about $11 trillion in 2025 and is tracking at an annualized $17 trillion through July, up about 60% year over year, according to Bernstein.

Bernstein said the Clarity Act’s outcome would not alter its Circle thesis. In the absence of legislation, third-party stablecoin rewards would remain under the current model, while passage would link rewards to user activity rather than idle balances, with either outcome viewed favorably for USDC.

Gautam Chhugani holds long positions in various cryptocurrencies. Bernstein or its affiliates have had investment banking and other business relationships with Circle over the past 12 months.