Gemini stock slump may already factor in leadership exits, Mizuho says

Shares of Gemini Space Station (GEMI) remain near all-time lows, but Mizuho analysts argue much of the recent turmoil may already be priced in.

In a Wednesday note, Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins reiterated their "outperform" rating and $26 price target, writing that while the departure of Gemini's COO, CFO, and CLO is "disappointing," the stock "likely already reflects a lot of this pain."

Gemini is trading at around $5.90 on Thursday, according to The Block price data, down a massive 43% in just the past 30 days alone and well below Mizuho’s base-case valuation.

Revenue slightly ahead, losses wider

Gemini’s preliminary revenue range of $165 million to $175 million came in slightly above Mizuho’s $168 million midpoint estimate. Adjusted EBITDA was weaker than expected, however, at roughly negative $257 million to negative $267 million versus the firm's prior forecast of about negative $224 million.

Still, the analysts argue recently announced cost reductions, including a roughly 25% workforce cut and exits from the UK, EU, and Australia, should help "drive a path to profitability over time."

They also described Gemini as a "crypto-heavy app," suggesting some of the weakness reflects broader pressure across digital-asset markets rather than company-specific factors alone.

Valuation unchanged

Mizuho continues to value Gemini at 7x estimated 2027 revenue, a discount to the 10x peer group median, supporting its unchanged $26 price target.

In a more optimistic scenario that includes stronger monthly transacting user growth and faster margin recovery, the firm sees shares trading closer to peer multiples, implying a $43 bull-case target. From current levels, that would represent gains of more than 600%.

By contrast, Mizuho’s bear case assumes slower user growth and a tougher operating backdrop, implying an $8 target — a 35% jump from where the stock trades today.