Data & Insights: Retail is here, Sailing the Opensea

Dried-out, On-chain Desert

• The 7-day moving average (7DMA) of transaction fees on the Ethereum network fell to $0.77 on February 15, 2025.
  • This figure stood at $2.57 just a week prior, marking a 70% week-over-week drop.
  • This drop pushed transaction costs to their lowest levels in dollar terms in over four years, which means the last time it was this cheap to transact on Ethereum was July 2020.
• The median gas price on Ethereum, measured in Gwei, further confirms this trend.
  • Over the past week, the daily median gas price averaged 1.61 GWEI, with its lowest figure coming in at 1.19 GWEI on Saturday, 15 February, the lowest reading since The Block began tracking this metric in January 2020.
  • Moreover, this is just one of two instances where this figure has stooped this low since January 2020, with the other occurring in September 2024.
• While falling fees typically encourage user activity, the extent of this drop, represented by a prolonged decline, suggests a broader lack of demand rather than improved network efficiency, as seen with a recent slowdown in Ethereum’s on-chain activity.
  • The 7DMA of Ethereum’s on-chain volume fell to just $4.19 billion on Saturday, 15 February, a 46% decline from the previous week.
  • This represents Ethereum’s lowest daily volume since 7 November 2024, right after the U.S. presidential election,
• We’ve talked about Ethereum’s woes extensively in recent weeks, and just when you thought things could not look any worse from the perspective of the blockchain’s activity, these (unpleasant) surprises continue to display themselves every week.

Sailing the Opensea

• Opensea has experienced somewhat of a resurgence lately, with its share of Ethereum NFT marketplace volume standing at 71.5% this past week.
  • For reference, just 4 weeks prior, Opensea had a 25.5% share of Ethereum NFT marketplace volume.
  • The bulk of this increase came this past week, when its share jumped from 42.4% to 71.5%, mainly taking away from Blur’s share of the total NFT volume.
• The cause of this spike in Opensea volume is likely the announcement of the platform’s long-awaited token, $SEA.
  • Opensea formally announced its $SEA token on February 13, 2025, and since then, the platform has facilitated an average of $17.4 million in NFT trading volume per day.
  • For reference, in the 5 days prior to the $SEA token announcement, Opensea averaged just $3.47 million in volume.
  • The number of trades on Opensea experienced a spike as well, as it facilitated an average of 14.7K transactions per day post-token announcement.
  • In the 5 days prior to the $SEA announcement, this figure averaged just 6.1K trades per day.
• While little is known so far about the specifics of the $SEA token, it is confirmed that US users are qualified and that historical platform usage will be an important factor when determining the airdrop allocation, which should rejoice users who used the platform extensively during peak NFT era in 2021.

Retail Traders Are Here Already?

• Robinhood's crypto revenue surprised many with a super impressive Q4 2024, reaching $360 million, nearly a 490% increase from Q3's $61 million.
  • This marks the platform's highest crypto revenue quarter, substantially exceeding its previous peak of $126 million in the first quarter of 2024.
  • Crypto revenue now represents nearly 40% of Robinhood's total quarterly revenue, compared to about 20% in Q3 2024.
• The revenue growth coincides with expanded cryptocurrency offerings on the platform.
  • Robinhood's crypto portfolio has grown to include popular memecoins like BONK, WIF, and TRUMP, alongside traditional cryptocurrencies.
  • The platform generates revenue primarily through trading spreads rather than commission fees, similar to other retail-focused exchanges.
• While Robinhood did not include specific breakdowns of what tokens were traded, Coinbase reported earnings shortly after and did include some insights. 
  • Coinbase's Q4 report indicates Bitcoin comprised 27% of trading volume, followed by Ethereum at 10%, USDT at 15%, with other crypto assets accounting for 48%.
  • This distribution suggests retail traders are showing significant interest in alternative cryptocurrencies beyond major assets.
  • While Robinhood delivered an impressive quarter for crypto volumes, Coinbase retains the top position with $440 billion in volume traded compared to Robinhoods $71 billion. However, the competition between the two platforms appears to be much closer than many had anticipated.  
  • These stats are really helpful in understanding retail mindshare and where their attention is focused. 
• Platforms like Robinhood have been a staple in measuring the retail participation within crypto markets. 
  • While memecoin listings appear to drive short-term user engagement and speculation, their typically volatile nature typically impacts long-term trading volumes.
  • The next quarter's performance will be crucial in determining whether this uptick represents a temporary surge driven by a speculative interest or a longer-term shift in retail investor preferences.

Doodling More Tokens

• Doodles NFT collection saw its second major trading volume spike in 2024, reaching $16 million in weekly volume following the announcement of their Solana-based memecoin $DOODS.
  • This surge represents the second-highest weekly volume for the Ethereum NFT since a $24 million peak during Pudgy Penguins' $PENGU token announcement.
  • Doodles NFT floor price reached 6.3 ETH during the announcement before settling around 4 ETH.
  • While the Doodles collection did major volumes, major ETH NFTs combined for only $46 million in volume, an average over the last few weeks. 
• The trend of Ethereum NFT projects launching Solana-based tokens continues to expand.
  • Doodles joins Pudgy Penguins, which launched $PENGU on December 17th, and Azuki with their $ANIME token in this strategy.
  • The project announced 68% of $DOODS tokens will be allocated to the community, though specific distribution mechanics remain unclear.
• Previous NFT token launches show diminishing returns for early participants.
  • $PENGU has declined 69% in value over the past 30 days, while $ANIME has dropped 40%.
  • These declines occurred despite initial enthusiasm and trading volume spikes in their respective NFT collections.
• The shift towards token launches comes amid leadership changes at Doodles, with founder Burnt Toast stepping into the CEO role at the end of January 2024.
• The convergence of NFTs and memecoins on Solana appears driven by multiple factors:
  • Ethereum's higher transaction fees make frequent trading and smaller transactions less economical for retail participants.
  • Solana's established memecoin ecosystem provides ready liquidity and an active trading community.
  • Projects can maintain their premium NFT collections on Ethereum while capturing trading volume and engagement on Solana.
• This dual-chain strategy may represent NFT projects adapting to changing market conditions, though declining token prices suggest diminishing returns as more projects adopt similar playbooks.

Typical Low-Volume, Low-Volatility Phase Post-Mass Liquidation

• As of Saturday, February 15, 2025, the 7DMA of the trading volume for BTC and ETH futures have experienced declines of 42% and 55%, respectively, compared to the previous week.
  • The 7DMA of BTC futures stood at $43.95 billion on 15 February, a significant drop compared to the previous Saturday’s figure of $75.5 billion.
  • On the other hand, the $25 billion 7DMA of ETH futures is a far cry from the previous week’s $55.96 billion.
• The significant declines in trading volumes for both futures markets are further reflected in the lack of change in open interest (OI).
  • For example, OI for BTC futures on CME, Binance and Bybit as of Friday, 14 February, is up an average of just 2% compared to the previous week.
  • On the other hand, as of 14 February, OI for ETH futures on CME fell by 7.6% week-over-week, while OI on Binance and Bybit rose by roughly 1% in the same period.
  • During this time, the price of BTC has maintained roughly the same price of $96,500, while the price of ETH rose by 2.2% this week.
• The lack of trading activity this week compared to the week prior is to be expected, as the crypto market cools down following one of the largest liquidation events in its history just 2 weeks ago.
  • As a reminder, US President Donald Trump's then-announcements of tariffs on Canada and Mexico prompted BTC and ETH to fall by over 13% since and 37%, at their respective lowest points.
  • This announcement led to a cascade of long liquidations totaling at least $1.7 billion in a single day across exchanges. However, due to API rate limitations for CEXs, the real liquidation figures are estimated to be at least four times larger than what was
  • This massive liquidation event likely triggered a risk-off sentiment among traders, leading to a more cautious approach in futures markets as there is a lack of conviction for participants to take on large positions, while geopolitical uncertainty means futures volumes could remain subdued until more clarity emerges.