Aptos Up; Uniswap Down

A Lot of MOVEment on Aptos

• The number of blocks published on the Aptos blockchain has hit a new all-time high following a spectacular rise so far in March 2025.
  • Over the past week, the Aptos blockchain has published an average of over 580K blocks per day.
  • The network published roughly 586K blocks on Friday, which represents its highest ever daily total in its history.
  • This follows a notable rise in this figure, which grew by 26%, or an average of 2.4% per day, in the 10 days from March 5 to March 10, 2025.
  • For further context, in the 3 months from December 2024 to February 2025, the Aptos blockchain produced an average of just 422K blocks per day.
  • Though the recent heightened figures are of a small week-long sample size, it does indicate that the Aptos blockchain has successfully increased its throughput capacity by a significant amount.
• However, despite the recent increase in its number of published blocks, other fundamental metrics of the Aptos blockchain have not fared as well.
  • Particularly, the 7-day moving average (7DMA) of the number of new addresses on the Aptos network has declined by over 53% since its recent all-time high set at the beginning of February 2025.
  • Meanwhile, the 7DMA of the number of active addresses on Aptos is also down 25% from its previous all-time high from the beginning of February 2025.
• This discrepancy indicates that activity may be concentrated among a small number of users, potentially hinting at either heightened bot activity or internal testing rather than organic user activity.

Unicorn Losing Its Wings

• Uniswap’s ranking in the finance category of the US app store has seen a significant decline recently, plummeting from rank 99 to 364 in just the past two months.
  • Throughout most of 2024, Uniswap consistently ranked around the 190s in the finance category of the US app store.
  • This changed following the US election victory of the pro-crypto President Donald Trump, where Uniswap’s ranking jumped to the 110s.
  • During the President’s inauguration shortly after, Uniswap’s app store ranking spiked again, this time peaking even higher at 99.
  • However, since that brief spike, Uniswap's app store ranking has dramatically declined, reaching even lower levels than it recorded throughout 2023.
  • This phenomenon suggests Uniswap’s earlier surge in app rankings was boosted by election hype.
• A number of crypto apps also saw brief spikes in their app store rankings after the US election.
  • However, what makes Uniswap’s case more interesting is that while other crypto apps typically reverted back to pre-election levels, Uniswap’s rankings have continued to fall to unprecedented lows, signaling a deeper underlying issue.
• Uniswap’s recent fundamental metrics further support this narrative.
  • The number of traders on Uniswap in the Ethereum network has declined by over 45% since the beginning of 2025, from 69.68K to 37K, levels not seen since July 2023.
  • Uniswap’s monthly trading volume also declined by 10% from December 2024 to January 2025 and another 22% MoM decline the following month.
  • It will be worth watching what March’s total volume will look like, but considering over 3/4th of the month has already been completed and volume so far barely surpassing half of February’s, it is not looking good for Uniswap at the moment.

Avalanche L1 Brewing

• The 7DMA of the number of active addresses on Lamina1, an Avalanche L1 (frequently known as subnet), reached an all-time high of over 41K during the second week of March 2025.
  • This figure has increased by over 210% compared to the week prior.
    In the beginning of 2025, the 7DMA of the number of active addresses on Lamina1 stood at roughly 8K.
  • This figure then proceeded to increase by over 60% by the beginning of March 2025, before further increasing by over 200% over the following 10 days.
• Lamina1 is a project centered around the creation, distribution and monetization of intellectual property on the blockchain.
  • The Lamina1 layer 1 blockchain is designed to facilitate the aforementioned functions, with Avalanche providing its base-level consensus and security mechanisms.
  • Lamina1 and Avalanche have been official partners since October 2023.

Not Quite Alt Season Yet

• Bitcoin dominance has continued its upward trajectory, currently sitting at 58% - a significant climb from December's low of 51%, marking the highest level since early 2021.
  • This metric, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization relative to the total market capitalization of all crypto assets, has been steadily increasing despite some expectations of a potential alt season.
  • A popular thesis among traders is that Bitcoin's dominance would decline as the market cycle matured, typically signaling a rotation of capital into altcoins.
• Many crypto investors have been anticipating the so-called "alt season" - a period when altcoins outperform Bitcoin, sometimes delivering outsized returns compared to the market leader.
  • Historically, alt seasons tend to follow Bitcoin rallies, as traders take profits from Bitcoin and redeploy capital into higher-risk, potentially higher-reward altcoins.
  • Despite favorable conditions that traditionally spark alt seasons (Bitcoin stability, increased market liquidity, institutional adoption), this rotation hasn't materialized in the expected fashion.
• Several factors have supported Bitcoin's continued dominance in this cycle.
  • Corporate accumulation strategies, particularly from Strategy (MicroStrategy), which has consistently raised capital specifically to acquire more Bitcoin, creating persistent buying pressure.
  • The proliferation of new tokens has vastly exceeded previous market cycles, potentially diluting capital that would otherwise flow to established altcoins.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs have created a direct avenue for traditional finance capital that remains largely absent for most altcoins.
• The Ethereum ETF approval in May was expected by some to chip away at Bitcoin's dominance, but the impact has been relatively muted compared to predictions.
  • While Ethereum ETFs saw strong initial inflows, they haven't catalyzed the broader altcoin market in the way many anticipated.
• The alt season thesis might not be invalidated but merely delayed, with potential catalysts still on the horizon that could trigger a rotation into altcoins.

Where Did All the Traders Go?

• Daily exchange volumes have retreated significantly from their post-election peaks, now settling around $35 billion, approximately the same level as prior to Donald Trump's presidential victory.
  • Following the November 5th election, daily trading volumes surged to $126 billion amid heightened market enthusiasm and speculative activity.
  • This represents a decline of roughly 70% from that peak, bringing the market back to pre-election baseline conditions in a relatively short timeframe.
  • Recent tariff announcements against major U.S. trading partners have introduced uncertainty that has dampened trading enthusiasm across traditional and crypto markets.
• Trading volumes have maintained their historical correlation with overall market capitalization, both experiencing similar trajectories in recent months.
  • The total cryptocurrency market cap reached approximately $3.9 trillion at its peak before retreating to current levels of around $2.9 trillion, a 25% decline.
• This volume contraction may signal several potential market developments in the coming months. Historically, extended periods of declining volumes have often preceded significant market moves, as the reduction in liquidity can amplify price impacts when larger players begin to reposition.
• Market participants may be waiting for greater clarity on the Trump administration's full approach to cryptocurrency regulation before engaging more actively.
  • The combination of reduced trading activity with a relatively stable market cap suggests an accumulation phase may be underway, with investors more focused on positioning than active trading.
  • Upcoming regulatory announcements, particularly regarding cryptocurrency classification and oversight structures, could serve as potential catalysts to reignite trading activity.