Data & Insights: New Highs for Base; New Lows for Cats

No Spot For You

• The 30-day moving average (30DMA) of BTC’s spot to futures volume ratio fell to 0.17, its lowest point since May 2023.
  • This metric calculates the daily spot market total volume for BTC divided by BTC futures trading volume.
  • Just over a month ago, at the end of February, this ratio was at 0.3, nearly double its current value.
  • It has since declined at a pace only last seen during the Silvergate banking crisis that occurred in March 2023.
• On the other hand, the 30DMA of ETH’s spot to futures volume ratio has fallen to 0.21, its lowest point since late December 2024.
  • This metric calculates the daily spot market total volume for ETH divided by ETH futures trading volume. 
  • Similar to BTC, this ratio for ETH sat at 0.33 just a month ago, before its rapid decline.
• The 30DMA of this ratio, having fallen at this fast of a pace, indicates that speculative activity through the futures market has been vastly outpacing spot demand.
  • This suggests an increasing number of traders, or at least larger value trades, have been positioning more through leverage rather than outright spot buying.
  • This further indicates heightened market fragility as price action becomes more sensitive to funding rates, liquidations and external events.
  • Additionally, the last time this ratio saw a comparable drop during the March 2023 Silvergate banking crisis, it preceded a period of significant deleveraging.

Base Case

• Base continues to impress amongst its Ethereum L2 peers as the daily number of unique addresses on the chain hit a new all-time high earlier last week.
  • Base saw 4.15 million new unique addresses last Sunday, 30 March 2025, following a parabolic increase in these figures that began in the preceding 2 weeks.
  • At the start of the third week of March 2025, this figure stood at just over 1 million new unique addresses on the day.
  • Over the next 2 weeks, this figure grew by 14.6% per day, culminating in an all-time high on 30 March.
• However, both transaction count and active addresses on Base have remained stagnant in this period.
  • Transaction count on Base has averaged roughly 7.4 million per day over the past month, with no significant fluctuations in between.
  • Similarly, the number of active addresses on Base has also not seen any significant fluctuations, averaging roughly 1.05 million per day over the past month.
• This discrepancy indicates that a significant portion of the new address growth may be inorganic or at least driven by short-term incentives or bot-generated activity.
  • In cases where address generation grows rapidly without a matching uptick in actual usage, it often suggests the creation of multiple addresses by a single user or bots.
  • The current divergence on Base raises questions about the long-term stickiness of these new addresses unless the trend eventually converts into higher transaction volumes or active user retention.

Cat-aclysmic Decline

• The floor price of Bitcoin NFT Quantum Cats halved in value last week, falling from 0.087 BTC on March 30, 2025,  to 0.04 BTC as of Saturday, April 5, 2025.
  • Meanwhile, the floor prices of other notable Bitcoin NFT collections remained relatively flat in comparison.
  • For example, NodeMonkes and Bitcoin Puppets declined by just 5% and 8%, respectively, over the same period. 
• The significant and isolated ~54% decline in Quantum Cats’ floor price is linked to the recent Taproot Wizards mint that began on March 25, 2025.
  • Quantum Cats holders were given a discount for the Taproot Wizards mint, thus incentivizing people to buy and hold them prior to the mint.
  • Specifically, collectors who owned pairs of "entangled" Quantum Cats were given a 50% discount for the mint price, from 0.2 BTC to 0.1 BTC.
  • However, after the Taproot Wizards mint, those who bought and held Quantum Cats solely to access the discount no longer had the same incentive to keep the NFTs, thus prompting them to sell in a classic example of a "sell the news/event."
• This event has now brought the floor price of Quantum Cats closer to its peers, such as NodeMonkes and Bitcoin Puppets, as opposed to the relatively significant premium it commanded from late December 2024 due to anticipation and hype of the aforementioned Taproot Wizards mint.

Tariff Turbulence

• The total crypto market capitalization has contracted significantly, falling to $2.7 trillion from its December 2024 peak of $3.9 trillion, representing a 30% decline in total market value over roughly four months.
  • This downturn coincides with broader weakness in equity markets, both reacting to President Trump's April 2 announcement of sweeping tariffs on his self-described "Liberation Day" for the United States.
  • With these tariffs set to take effect in the coming days, market uncertainty has prompted widespread risk-off behavior among investors across multiple asset classes.
• Bitcoin has demonstrated resilience amid the market turbulence. Despite dipping to $78,500, alternative cryptocurrencies face steeper declines.
  • This divergence in performance has pushed Bitcoin's market dominance to nearly 60%, a significant increase from earlier this year.
  • The pattern suggests a flight to perceived quality within the crypto ecosystem, with investors favoring Bitcoin's established status during periods of heightened market stress.
  • Other crypto assets further down the risk curve have underperformed with the news. Smaller protocol tokens, NFTs, and other high-risk assets have seen prices drop significantly from last December’s highs. 
• The correlation between crypto assets and traditional markets strengthened during this period of economic policy uncertainty.
  • Investors continue to treat crypto assets as risk-on investments, reducing exposure alongside other speculative positions.
  • Looking ahead, we’re watching to see if crypto continues to trade in tandem with equities or if Bitcoin's strength pushes crypto ahead.

ETH Dexsert

• Ethereum's decentralized exchange volume has slowed, with daily unique traders dropping to approximately 40,000 addresses, a 12-month low, and a steep decline from the 95,000 peak observed in late 2024.
  • This sharp reduction in DEX participation coincides with broader market cooling and diminished speculative capital flows across the cryptocurrency landscape.
  • Uniswap remains the dominant force in the Ethereum DEX ecosystem, dwarfing competitors like SushiSwap, which currently attracts only about 2,000 daily active addresses.
• Trading volumes have contracted alongside user participation, with Ethereum DEX volume falling to $57 billion in March 2025, nearly half of the $112 billion recorded during the December 2024 market peak.
  • This volume reduction reflects both decreased user activity and potentially smaller average trade sizes as market participants adopt more cautious positioning.
  • Despite this contraction, decentralized exchanges still maintain approximately 13% of total spot trading volume compared to centralized exchanges, continuing a gradual upward trend observed over recent years.
• The current landscape highlights persistent advantages and drawbacks between centralized and decentralized trading venues.
  • Centralized exchanges continue to offer superior liquidity, lower transaction costs, and faster execution for most standard trading activities.
  • However, innovations from DEX aggregators like Bebop and CoWSwap are progressively narrowing these gaps by optimizing routing, reducing slippage, and enhancing overall user experience.
• Layer 2 solutions like Base have captured significant trading volume, while Solana continues to establish itself as a prominent alternative trading venue.
  • This redistribution suggests that while Ethereum's native DEX activity has declined, traders are still interested in exploring cost-effective venues rather than exiting decentralized trading altogether.