Data & Insights: Hyperliquid Share Increase; Coinbase International Volume Up

Another Week, Another Negative ETH Topic

• The 7-day moving average (7DMA) of the percentage of ETH supply in profit stood at 41.5% as of Friday, April 11, 2025.
  • The percentage of ETH supply in profit measures the percentage of existing ETH whose price at the time they last moved was lower than the current price.
  • Friday’s figures marked a 5-year low, with the last time this figure reaching these levels being April 2020, following the COVID market crash.
  • Just 4 months ago, in December 2024, the percentage of ETH supply in profit stood at over 96%, as the price of ETH reached its 2021 all-time high of $4,100.
  • Since then, the price of ETH has declined by over 62% as of the time of writing, directly reflecting the decline in the percentage of its supply in profit.
• On the other hand, the 7DMA of the percentage of BTC supply in profit is standing at a strong 76% at the time of writing.
  • For comparison, this figure stood at over 96% in December 2024. While the decline is notable, it is not as drastic as the one seen on ETH.
  • This is to be expected, considering the price of BTC is down just 23% in this period, compared to ETH’s decline of over 60%.
• This is yet another blow to Ethereum, and at this point, it does feel like there's always something bad to write about Ethereum every week.
  • While macro factors like hawkish Fed expectations and weakening altcoin appetite have played a role, Ethereum’s underperformance also reflects deeper sentiment shifts around its ecosystem, ranging from lackluster L2 engagement to waning developer interest.

Tarrif-ying Liquidations

• We are just about halfway through the month of April and Ethereum lending market liquidations for the month have already surpassed that of March.
  • In the 2 weeks of April so far, there have been $150 million worth of lending liquidations on Ethereum.
  • Out of this, $100 million came from Aave, $25 million from Spark and $13.5 million from Compound.
  • In comparison, March saw just $127.8 million in Ethereum lending market liquidations, with $77 million from Aave and $39 million from Compound. Meanwhile, Spark contributed just $3.5 million.
• The notable increase in lending market liquidations in April was likely caused by the market-wide decline caused by trade tariffs set by the United States on multiple countries.
  • In the 5 days after “liberation day” on 2 April 2025, where President Donald Trump unveiled the tariff rates that were to be implemented on various countries worldwide, the S&P500 and NASDAQ proceeded to decline by 12% and 14%, respectively.
  • Meanwhile, BTC and ETH declined by over 15% and 27% in the same period, which then likely prompted the lending liquidations on Ethereum.

Retail Curiosity Spark

• Google search volume for “Bitcoin” for the month of March 2025 stood at 34, its highest level so far in 2025.
  • Google search volumes are measured relative between a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 being the maximum from a given time period. 100 is the peak from December 2017.
  • For reference, this figure stood at just 31 and 27 in January and February 2025, respectively.
  • This marks a 26% month-over-month relative increase in search volumes for “Bitcoin”, and marks a shift in this metric’s consistent decline since November 2024.
• Similarly, Google search volume for “Ethereum” in March 2025 also reached its highest level so far in 2025, with 19.
  • This represents a minor increase from the previous month's score of 16.
  • Similar to Bitcoin, Google search volumes are measured relative between a scale of 0 to 100, with 100 being the maximum from a given time period. In Ethereum’s case, 100 is the peak from May 2021.
• While still far from prior cycle highs, March’s uptick in Google search interest for both Bitcoin and Ethereum could reflect a rekindling of retail curiosity, at least more than what has been displayed so far in 2025.
  • A broader theory for the uptick in Bitcoin interest during March could be the newly announced U.S. tariffs, which may have reignited the long-standing “digital gold” and “store of value” narrative often associated with Bitcoin, particularly during times of rising geopolitical or macroeconomic tension.
  • This theory is backed by looking at the BTC to SPX ratio, which is up over 8% since the “liberation day” tariff announcement on April 2nd.
  • However, diving deeper into other assets, notably gold, shows that the “original” store of value remains the preferred asset during times of macroeconomic tension, as the gold to BTC ratio and the gold to SPX ratio, are up roughly 8% and 10%, respectively, since “liberation day.”

Hyperliquid Marketshare Growing

• Hyperliquid has continued to build its commanding position in the perpetual protocol market, reaching nearly 70% market share in recent weeks, a significant climb from its position in early 2024.
  • For context, perpetual futures (or "perps") are derivative contracts that allow traders to speculate on asset prices without an expiration date, combining features of futures contracts with spot trading flexibility.
  • Unlike traditional futures, perps maintain exposure through a funding rate mechanism that periodically transfers value between long and short positions to keep prices aligned with the underlying asset.
• The protocol's trading volume has shown strong momentum, processing $175 billion in March alone, with April already reaching $83 billion at the halfway point.
  • When comparing Hyperliquid's volume to traditional centralized exchange giant Binance, the ratio has climbed to nearly 10%, indicating the growing adoption of decentralized derivatives trading.
  • This growth trajectory suggests a gradual shift in increased preference toward on-chain perpetual solutions that have increased accessibility. 
• The chart reveals a consistent upward trend for Hyperliquid since April 2024, with competing protocols like Jupiter, GMX, and Vertex Edge maintaining smaller but stable portions of the market.
  • This concentration pattern often emerges in maturing markets where network effects and liquidity advantages compound for leading protocols.
• Perpetual futures may be finding greater on-chain traction compared to spot trading due to several structural advantages.
  • Perpetual contracts enable leverage, allowing traders to amplify positions without the capital requirements of fully-funded spot trades, making these platforms attractive to sophisticated traders.
  • The non-custodial nature of on-chain perps addresses concerns about exchange insolvency that have plagued centralized platforms while still providing the trading instruments that active traders demand.
  • Additionally, the automated execution of positions through smart contracts eliminates potential settlement issues that can occur on centralized venues during extreme market volatility.

Coinbase International

• Coinbase International's perpetual futures platform has continued to grow in the derivatives market, processing nearly $100 billion in BTC perpetual futures volume over the past week.
  • This surge has positioned Bitcoin perpetuals as the exchange's largest market segment, with all other markets making up significantly less volume.
  • For context, Coinbase International operates as Coinbase's Bermuda-licensed derivatives exchange, allowing the company to offer sophisticated trading products that regulatory constraints prevent in its U.S. operations.
• The recent spike in trading activity coincides with market turbulence triggered by tariff uncertainty, which initially caused a sharp 20% drop in the S&P 500 before a quick rebound.
  • During this period of heightened volatility, Bitcoin demonstrated relative resilience, reinforcing the narrative of BTC as "digital gold" and a potential safe haven during economic uncertainty.
  • This perspective appears validated by traditional gold's concurrent performance, with prices pushing to all-time highs above $3,200, suggesting a broader flight to perceived store-of-value assets.
• Regulatory considerations may be playing a significant role in Coinbase International's growing derivatives footprint.
  • By establishing operations in Bermuda, Coinbase has created a regulatory-compliant avenue to serve global clients seeking access to leveraged crypto products that remain restricted in many jurisdictions.
  • This offshore structure potentially provides institutional and retail traders alike with the confidence of trading on a platform backed by a public company while accessing products unavailable on Coinbase's U.S. exchange.
• The relatively small representation of the "151 Others" category suggests that, despite offering a wide range of perpetual contracts, traders are not yet ready to explore further down the risk curve.