Data & Insights: Summer Slowdown; Future Ratios Up

Vacation Time

• Early signs of summer seasonality appear to have returned to the crypto markets, as total Bitcoin futures volume for the month of June recorded a ~20% month-over-month (MoM) decline.
  • Centralized exchanges saw just ~$1.55 trillion in total Bitcoin futures volume this month.
  • For context, over the first 5 months of 2025, Bitcoin futures volume averaged $1.93 trillion per month.
  • This puts June’s figure roughly 20% below the year-to-date (YTD) monthly average.
• A similar pattern played out last year, when June 2024’s total Bitcoin futures volume dropped 15.7% MoM.
  • Although volumes rebounded in the following month, Bitcoin futures still averaged a lower $1.53 trillion monthly from June through September 2024.
  • For context, the average from January to May 2024 was $1.71 trillion per month.
  • The June-September 2024 window thus saw a 10% lower average monthly volume compared to the first 5 months of that year.
• Another example of this seasonal trend occurred in 2023, though it started slightly later in July.
  • The first six months of 2023 saw an average monthly volume of $1.03 trillion for Bitcoin futures, while July 2023 came in sharply lower at just $717 billion.
  • July 2023 also saw a ~30% MoM decline in total Bitcoin futures volume, which marked the start of a 3-month downturn in volume, as it declined a further 2.4% in August, followed by a more severe 21.5% drop in September.
• While it’s still too early to say with certainty, if this month’s data is any indication, we could be on track for another muted summer stretch ahead.

DEXceptional

• The DEX to CEX futures trade volume ratio has hit a new all-time high of 8% in the month of June 2025.
  • This figure is up considerably from the 6.84% recorded last month, and from just 4.78% this time last year.
• This, of course, is largely the result of Hyperliquid’s ever-rising dominance against its centralized exchange (CEX) counterparts.
  • Hyperliquid facilitated over $210 billion in perpetuals volume in June 2025, which is actually down ~15% MoM.
  • However, in the same period, Binance’s perpetuals volume is down by ~20% MoM.
  • This “relative strength” by Hyperliquid has set a new all-time high in the Hyperliquid/Binance ratio, which currently stands at 11.3%, compared to 10.5% last month.
  • Meanwhile, Hyperliquid also regained a notable portion of its perp DEX market share this month.
  • At the end of May 2025, Hyperliquid had a 69.77% market share.
  • Fast forward roughly a month and this figure currently stands at an even more commanding 75%.
• Besides Hyperliquid, APX Finance has also contributed to the rising DEX-to-CEX futures trade volume this month.
  • APX Finance recorded over $34 billion in volume in June, which represents a ~350% MoM increase.
  • This follows a 120% monthly increase in the month before that, where APX Finance’s volume increased from $3.4 billion in April to $7.51 billion in May.
  • The rise in APX Finance’s volumes likely stemmed from the combined impact of its “stage 1 points trading‑mining” incentive program that ran from April 10 to June 22, as well as the launch of its market maker incentive program on June 6.
  • It is worth noting that APX Finance merged with Astherus in March 2025 to become Aster.

DeFi Is Making Money Again

• Monthly DeFi fees have demonstrated resilience, climbing to approximately $577 million in recent months, representing a notable recovery from the April low of $366 million. 
  • This 58% increase signals renewed activity across decentralized finance protocols as market participants gravitate toward onchain financial services. 
  • The fee surge coincides with increased transaction volumes and the maturation of DeFi protocols that have proven their sustainability through various market cycles.
• Major protocols like PancakeSwap have emerged as fee-generating leaders, accumulating $275 million in fees through their automated market-making services and yield farming mechanisms. 
  • DeFi platforms offer competitive advantages through peer-to-peer transactions that eliminate traditional intermediaries, often resulting in lower costs compared to conventional banking fees.
• Protocol business models have evolved to capture value through diverse fee structures across lending, trading, and staking services. 
  • PancakeSwap generates revenue through trading fees (typically 0.17% to 0.25% per swap), farm and pool fees, and lottery mechanisms, while Uniswap operates on a 0.3% standard trading fee that gets distributed to liquidity providers. 
  • Lending protocols like Aave and MakerDAO collect fees through interest rate spreads and liquidation penalties, creating sustainable revenue streams that have supported billions in total value locked.
• The competitive landscape has intensified as protocols optimize for fee generation while maintaining user adoption. Pump.fun's prominence in the fee charts reflects the memecoin trading boom, where transaction frequency drives revenue despite lower individual transaction values.
  • This shift toward decentralized fee collection models suggests protocols are finding sustainable paths to monetization without relying on traditional banking intermediaries.

Making Coin(base)

• Coinbase shares have reached their highest levels since the company's public debut, climbing to $375 and marking a dramatic recovery from the low of approximately $30 witnessed during the depths of the 2022-2023 crypto winter. 
  • This resurgence reflects both the exchange's strategic product expansion and its deepening integration with the stablecoin economy, positioning the company as a beneficiary of crypto's institutional adoption wave. 
• Coinbase has benefited from being first to launch a number of products in the US, including its Layer-2 Base. The company expanded its suite of products with the announcement of US Perpetual-Style Futures, launching on July 21, 2025, which represents a transformative milestone for domestic crypto derivatives trading. 
  • These CFTC-compliant products will now offer 24/7 trading with leverage capabilities, directly competing with offshore platforms like Hyperliquid that have captured significant market share. 
• Coinbase's financial relationship with Circle has also emerged as a significant revenue driver, strengthening both companies' market positions. The market has responded favorably to Circle's IPO success, with investors viewing Coinbase as a proxy beneficiary of stablecoin adoption.
  • Through their partnership, Coinbase receives a share of Circle's residual USDC reserve revenue. This arrangement has proven lucrative, as both companies have seen tremendous growth over the past few weeks.

The Flippening No One's Talking About

• The ETH/BTC futures volume ratio has surged to near-parity at 98%, marking a dramatic reversal from the pessimistic sentiment that dominated Ethereum throughout much of 2024. 
  • This custom chart tracks the relative trading interest between the two largest cryptocurrencies in derivatives markets, suggesting shifting investor preferences and renewed confidence in Ethereum's prospects. 
  • The ratio has recovered from its October 2024 lows of 42% to its current levels. 
• The October 2024 trough coincided with widespread speculation that Ethereum had permanently fallen out of investor favor, with many questioning whether the network could maintain its position as the primary smart contract platform. 
  • Concerns centered around high transaction fees, competition from faster Layer 1 networks, and uncertainty around Ethereum ETF adoption compared to Bitcoin's clear institutional acceptance.
  • The subsequent recovery reflects renewed optimism about Ethereum's ecosystem, driven by a focused foundation, increasing adoption of Layer 2 scaling solutions, and increased DeFi activity onchain. 
• As Bitcoin's dominance narrative matured, traders began looking further down the risk curve for assets with potentially higher upside, naturally gravitating toward Ethereum as the most established alternative.
  • The impending launch of additional crypto ETFs, including potential products for Solana and XRP, introduces new competitive dynamics to the derivatives market.
    While these tokens may capture some speculative trading volume, Ethereum's established infrastructure and developer ecosystem may give it the leg up it needs to maintain market share in institutional adoption.