Data & Insights: ATH ETH Staked; Tons of Krak Users

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• Polymarket saw $1.16 billion worth of volume on the platform for the month of June 2025
  • This represents a 9.4% month-over-month (MoM) increase and is also the platform’s highest monthly volume total since January’s $1.26 billion.
• Meanwhile, the number of new markets on Polymarket increased by 21.4% MoM, marking a record high of 7.99K in June. 
  • This showcases Polymarket’s increasing diversification of its markets in recent months, as opposed to the more concentrated politics-focused landscape seen towards the end of 2024
• On the other hand, total active traders on Polymarket saw a -9.4% MoM decline in June, with just over 242K traders.
  • June’s figure is also -47.6% lower than its all-time high from January’s ~462K trader count.
  • The discrepancy between an upwards trend in volume and new markets and a downtrend of active traders in recent months suggests existing traders are wagering far larger sums per head than before.
  • This is backed by average notional traded per account having risen to roughly $4.8K in June from about $2.7K in January, pointing to deeper engagement from a smaller “power-user” cohort.
  • It might also imply that Polymarket’s top-of-funnel user growth is stalling despite record market breadth, underscoring the need to address larger onboarding or marketing expansions.

High Stakes

• We’re currently past the halfway mark of 2025 and the percentage of total ETH supply staked is currently standing at an all-time high of 29.26%
  • This further inches Ethereum closer to having 1/3rd of its token supply staked.
  • For reference, at the beginning of the year, Ethereum had just 28.1% of its total token supply staked, with it even declining towards a yearly low of 27.2% in March.
  • However, in the 3 months since, this figure rapidly increased to setting record highs, surpassing its previous record high of 28.7% from November 2024.
• The trough and subsequent reversal in this trend in March was likely catalyzed by Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade.
  • The upgrade lifted the maximum stake per validator from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH.
  • This enabled larger staking providers to merge hundreds or thousands of smaller nodes into fewer high-capacity validators, thereby significantly cutting down on hardware expenses and operational overhead.
• Looking ahead, Cboe’s March filings to let spot-ETH ETFs stake their holdings signal that large funds may soon route fresh ETH into validators.
  • Projected inflows into these staking ETFs would further boost the percentage of supply staked, which would enhance security but also concentrate power in a handful of regulated custodians.

Krak Users

• Kraken has been gaining momentum over the past month, with its market share climbing from 19% to 29% since the start of the year among USD-supported exchanges.
  • This growth trajectory has accelerated recently, with Kraken capturing an increasing portion of trading volume while maintaining consistent monthly volumes above $20 billion over the last five months.
• The timing of Kraken's market share expansion coincides with a series of product announcements within the last two weeks that signal the exchange's ambitions beyond traditional crypto trading.
  • The launch of xStocks on Kraken, a Solana-based stock tokenization platform, enables users to trade stock tokens 24/7 onchain, tapping into the growing intersection of traditional finance and blockchain technology.
  • Kraken also unveiled Krak, a stablecoin-powered payments platform designed to compete with established players like PayPal and Venmo in the peer-to-peer payments space.
• These product expansions reflect a broader trend among exchanges seeking to diversify revenue streams and capture market share through innovative offerings.
  • While correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation, the timing of these announcements alongside Kraken's market share gains suggests the exchange's product strategy may be resonating with users seeking expanded functionality.
  • The focus on both traditional finance integration and payments infrastructure positions Kraken to potentially benefit from increased mainstream adoption of crypto-based financial services.

ETF Shenanigans

• Bitcoin and crypto ETFs haven’t stayed out of the news for the past two weeks, with assets under management continuing to climb as institutional adoption broadens beyond traditional financial firms.
  • The Bitcoin spot ETF AUM has continued to rise, now standing at just under $150 billion, reflecting sustained institutional interest despite broader market volatility.
  • This growth has been bolstered by corporate treasury announcements, with companies like Figma revealing in S-1 filings that it holds $70 million in Bitcoin ETF shares and has allocated $30 million more in USDC for direct Bitcoin purchases.
• The ETF landscape has expanded beyond Bitcoin, with the launch of a staked Solana ETF on July 2nd, marking a significant evolution in crypto investment products.
  • These staking-enabled ETFs represent a new category that allows investors to earn staking rewards while maintaining the regulatory framework and accessibility of traditional ETFs.
  • The Solana ETF launch sets a precedent for other proof-of-stake assets, with Ethereum staking ETFs likely to follow as regulators become more comfortable with staking.
• Corporate crypto treasury adoption is also gaining momentum, with companies experiencing strong stock price performance following the announcement of crypto allocations.
  • This positive market reception may encourage additional corporate announcements in the coming months, potentially creating a feedback loop of adoption and market appreciation.
• The pipeline of pending ETF applications signals continued product expansion, with XRP and Doge ETFs among others already filed and awaiting regulatory approval.
  • The success of staking ETFs could accelerate approval timelines for similar products, particularly those offering yield-generating mechanisms that appeal to traditional investors seeking income-producing assets.

King Bitcoin

• Bitcoin has maintained its position as the preferred crypto asset, outperforming 15 of the top 20 tokens by market cap over the past month with a 3.7% return, while most major altcoins posted negative performance.
  • Bitcoin dominance has climbed back to 62%, reclaiming the highs reached in May and suggesting continued flight-to-quality behavior among crypto investors.
  • The sluggish altcoin performance indicates that the anticipated "alt season" has yet to materialize, with capital remaining concentrated in Bitcoin rather than flowing into riskier alternative tokens.
• Bitcoin Cash emerged as a notable exception, posting a 25% return that significantly outpaced Bitcoin's modest gains.
  • This outperformance has been partly thanks to unsubstantiated speculation that an old Bitcoin whale has woken up to sell large amounts of Bitcoin to buy Bitcoin Cash.
• Investor attention appears increasingly focused on crypto equity exposure rather than direct token ownership, with stocks like Coinbase (38.98%), Robinhood (30%), and Circle (126.81%) delivering substantial returns over the past month.
  • This preference for regulated equity vehicles over direct crypto exposure suggests institutional investors may view crypto stocks as a more palatable way to gain cryptocurrency market exposure.
• The combination of strong crypto equity performance and continued corporate treasury announcements may perpetuate altcoin underperformance.
  • Bitcoin dominance could continue testing the high 60% range if this institutional preference for Bitcoin-focused products persists while altcoin narratives struggle to capture mainstream attention.