Data & Insights: Strategy's Declining MNAV; Link ETF

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• Ethereum DEX volume in November 2025 stood at just over $21 billion, the lowest monthly figure since October 2023
  • The number of new tokens appearing on Ethereum DEXs has actually remained relatively stable over the last three months, implying Ethereum is not facing a "token launching crisis", but rather a lack of trading interest among participants to speculate on those assets.
  • This is further backed up by the fact that the number of Ethereum DEX traders is currently sitting at its lowest figure since early 2023.
• On the other hand, Ethereum DEX aggregator volume has remained relatively strong this year.
  • This suggests traders have been increasingly conscious of execution quality throughout the year, migrating away from direct DEX front-ends in favor of aggregators to optimize their swaps.
• Meanwhile, the ratio of Solana vs Ethereum’s DEX volume remains at 206%
  While this figure is lower than it was last month, it remains in line with its gradual upwards multi-year trend, indicating that liquidity and retail speculation have continued to structurally migrate to Solana.

In the GLINK of an Eye

• Grayscale’s spot Chainlink ETF (Ticker: GLINK) went live on December 2, 2025, debuting with $14 million in volume on its first day.
  • The following two days saw it average over $8 million in volume, though momentum cooled quickly with trading volume declining by -50% by the fourth day.
  • It is worth noting that the GLINK spot ETF was actually converted from the Grayscale Chainlink Trust, which may have fundamentally skewed the initial volume numbers.
  • The high initial volume could have likely represented long-term Trust holders who were finally being able to exit or rebalance at “net asset value” (NAV) at the spot ETF conversion.
  • This backlog of "exit liquidity" likely cleared by its fourth day of trading, which explains the collapse in trading volume.
• For further context, GLINK’s initial volume figures pale in comparison to the spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which saw billions of dollars in volume during their opening days.
  • Granted, both BTC and ETH have significantly better brand recognition among traditional investors, whereas Chainlink may require a more complex "education sales pitch" to explain its value to traditional investors.
• Although when comparing the spot Chainlink ETF to other altcoin spot ETFs, GLINK ranks solidly in the middle in terms of volume.
  • GLINK trailed the spot Dogecoin ETF, which averaged well over $10 million in early volume, but significantly outperformed the spot Litecoin ETF, which saw less than $1.5 million in volume in its first couple of days.
  • If the patterns of previous altcoin ETF launches are any indication, we can expect GLINK’s volume to gradually decline and stagnate relative to its initial few days, barring any sudden, unexpected institutional interest in Chainlink.

Chaining Fees

• Blockchain fee capture has emerged again as a key metric for evaluating network value creation, as demand for blockspace fundamentally drives chain valuations. Throughout 2025, the distribution of fees across major networks has shifted dramatically, raising questions about the optimal strategy for successful applications.
  • Hyperliquid has surged to capture approximately 50% of total blockchain fees as of December 2025, up from roughly 10% at the start of the year. This rapid ascent has come largely at the expense of established networks like Ethereum and Solana, which combined now account for around 20% of the fee share, down from over half at the beginning of 2025.
  • The Hyperliquid L1 hosts its namesake perpetual DEX, which generates nearly all onchain fees for the network. This concentration highlights how a single high-quality application can drive meaningful blockchain success and value capture.
• Hyperliquid's growth has intensified an ongoing strategic debate in crypto: should successful applications build on existing major chains or launch their own dedicated networks?
  • The case for app-specific chains centers on value capture, as by controlling the entire stack, projects like Hyperliquid retain fees that would otherwise accrue to base layer protocols. This model also allows for chain-level customization optimized for specific use cases.
  • Conversely, building on established networks like Ethereum or Solana provides immediate access to liquidity, composability with existing protocols, and battle-tested infrastructure without the overhead of maintaining a standalone chain.
• The market appears to be validating both approaches. Networks like Ethereum and Solana continue attracting builders seeking ecosystem network effects, while successful applications increasingly view launching dedicated chains as a viable path to maximizing value capture.

Strategizing Around MNAV

• Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate bitcoin holder, saw its MNAV premium compress significantly alongside recent bitcoin price declines. The ratio now hovers near parity at approximately 1.0, down from around 1.5 at the start of 2025 and a peak of roughly 2.0 earlier in the year.
  • MNAV measures a company's equity value relative to the value of its underlying bitcoin holdings. When the ratio exceeds 1.0, investors are willing to pay more for exposure to bitcoin through the company than the actual value of its holdings. A ratio near or below 1.0 significantly constrains the company's ability to raise capital through share issuances without diluting existing holders.
  • This compression has placed Strategy in a challenging position, as the company issued preferred shares in 2025 that carry dividend obligations to shareholders. With limited premium remaining to fund these payments through accretive equity raises, the company faces constraints on its traditional capital-raising playbook.
• Other bitcoin treasury companies face similar dynamics, where simultaneous compression in both MNAV premiums and underlying crypto prices could force difficult decisions around selling holdings to fund operational expenses and financial obligations.
  • In response to these pressures, Strategy announced a $1.4 billion cash reserve funded through share sales, specifically to support future dividend payments. The move raised some questions, given that the company's core strategy has centered on converting cash into bitcoin holdings.
  • However, the cash reserve may prove necessary to maintain investor confidence during periods of market volatility. The approach does reduce Strategy's pure bitcoin exposure to some degree, tempering the volatility profile that has characterized the company's treasury strategy.
• Strategy has not ruled out selling bitcoin as an option, though management has suggested such a move would likely be considered only as a last resort given the potential market impact of liquidating even a marginal portion of its holdings.

ETH ETFs

• With just 17 trading days remaining in 2025, spot Ethereum ETF performance has largely mirrored the underlying asset's price volatility throughout the year. Total ETF assets under management began 2025 at approximately $11 billion, surged to an all-time high of $28 billion, before declining to around $17 billion at the time of writing.
  • This trajectory closely tracked ETH price action, which reached highs near $4,700 before settling around $3,000, ultimately flipping negative on the year. 
  • These ETF products have provided institutional access to Ethereum exposure for investors who previously faced regulatory or operational barriers to holding the underlying asset directly. However, the ability to stake ETH has been a distinct advantage over ETFs.
• That changed in October when Grayscale received SEC approval to convert its spot Ethereum ETF into a staked product, allowing the fund to stake and pass yields through to holders. The fund has since staked approximately 75% of its ETH holdings, establishing a precedent that will hopefully enable other issuers to follow suit.
  • Staking yields on Ethereum have averaged just under 3% annually in 2025. Based on the collective AUM across all spot ETH ETFs, approximately $250 million in staking rewards would have been generated year-to-date, with some portion of that now being captured through Grayscale's staked product.
  • The approval of staked ETH ETFs addresses what had been the last meaningful advantage of holding ETH directly versus through an ETF wrapper. As more products convert to staking models in 2026, the competitive landscape between direct ownership and regulated fund vehicles may shift further toward institutional-friendly ETF structures.