Data & Insights: 2025 Round Up Plus More

Mining Through 2026

• Following Bitcoin's fourth halving in 2024, miner revenue grew modestly in 2025, with projections of $17.2 billion, up from $14.7 billion the prior year. 
  • However, the composition of miner revenue shifted dramatically. Fees, as a share of total revenue, dropped 82%, from approximately 7% in 2024 to roughly 1% in 2025.
  • This decline reflected the unwinding of last year's onchain activity driven by Ordinals, BRC-20 tokens, and Runes, leaving miners increasingly dependent on block subsidies as fee revenue diminished.
• Despite these revenue composition challenges, Bitcoin's hash rate reached 1 zetahash for the first time in 2025, with hash rate growth continuing its decade-long upward trajectory as new entrants and improved hardware efficiencies intensified network competition.
  • Foundry USA maintained its position as the largest mining pool, accounting for 30% of market share as the five-year-old Digital Currency Group subsidiary.
• Publicly traded Bitcoin miners significantly outperformed the underlying asset in 2025, with the average return among top mining companies reaching 62% year-to-date and median returns of 16%, contrasting sharply with Bitcoin's negative performance.
  • This divergence largely resulted from mining companies pivoting toward AI infrastructure and services. The AI boom enabled miners to leverage existing infrastructure and power contracts to diversify revenue streams beyond Bitcoin block rewards, a strategy that resonated with investors seeking exposure to multiple growth narratives simultaneously.

Base(ically) Unstoppable

• Throughout 2025, one of our most consistent trends has been activity on Base. The Coinbase L2 captured the majority of active addresses and new liquidity while most other L2s saw TVLs stagnate or decline once incentive programs faded.
  • A clear power-law dynamic has emerged in the L2 landscape, with Base and Arbitrum together commanding over 77% of all L2 DeFi TVL, leaving smaller networks competing for increasingly limited capital.
• Base's TVL rose from $3.1 billion in January to a peak above $5.6 billion as of October, representing approximately 46.6% of all L2 DeFi TVL. This growth trajectory has been largely upward since the network's launch, though not without periodic fluctuations.
  • Base has also captured significant mindshare for emerging narratives, particularly AI agent tokens and consumer-focused applications, positioning itself as the primary destination for retail DeFi activity.
• In contrast, Arbitrum's TVL remained largely stable year-over-year, edging down slightly from approximately $2.9 billion to $2.8 billion while maintaining over 31% market share.
  • This stability suggests Arbitrum has retained its existing user base and capital, even as it hasn't captured the same share of new inflows that Base has attracted.
  • OP Mainnet saw modest benefits from new Superchain partnerships, but continues to lag in retail usage as consumer attention has concentrated on Base. 

IPO’ing into 2026

• After years of regulatory uncertainty and muted risk appetite, 2025 marked a turning point in crypto's relationship with public markets. A wave of high-profile IPOs signaled that equity markets had regained enthusiasm for digital asset exposure, even as subsequent price volatility revealed the sector's continued risk profile.
  • Circle's June debut on the New York Stock Exchange served as a watershed moment. The stablecoin issuer raised approximately $1.1 billion at $31 per share, with investors driving shares up nearly 290% on the first day of trading.
  • However, this initial euphoria proved short-lived. Circle's stock eventually climbed toward $240 before settling around $66 by November, illustrating the gap between IPO enthusiasm and sustained market support.
• These successful capital raises demonstrated investor willingness to fund crypto-native business models, even for unprofitable companies with unproven public market track records.
  • The regulatory backdrop shifted meaningfully under the Trump administration. The SEC closed enforcement actions against major firms, including Gemini, Coinbase, and Kraken, while introducing supportive frameworks like Project Crypto, providing clarity that had long been absent.
  • Broader public crypto company performance reflected this volatility. The Global Digital Assets Equity Index climbed as high as 83% year-to-date before settling back to 16% by November.

Spotless

• The 7-day moving average (7DMA) of daily exchange spot volume fell to $27 billion on New Year's Day, the lowest reading in nearly two years and is down nearly 75% from the October 2025 peak.
  • This decline reflects a convergence of factors, some of which include:
  • Year-end trading desks closing books, holiday liquidity withdrawal and deteriorating sentiment following the Q4 2025 correction.
  • Exchange volume began its slide in mid-October, dropping from $106 billion to $54.0 billion by early November before accelerating further into year-end.
  • The pattern mirrors previous cycle lows, where exchange volume hit similar sub-$30 billion levels during the July 2021 mid-cycle correction and the late 2022 post-FTX capitulation.
  • Interestingly, both periods preceded multi-month rallies. This means that the current reading, occurring during a historically low-activity window, does not necessarily signal structural demand destruction.
• Over the next couple of weeks, it will be worth watching for volume recovery as institutional desks return.
  • A failure to reclaim at least $40 billion in daily volume by mid-January would suggest deeper sentiment issues beyond seasonality.

New Year's Discrepancy

• The 7DMA of daily Ethereum transactions reached 1.87 million on New Year's Eve, an all-time high that eclipses the previous peak set in August 2025.
  • Both active and new addresses on Ethereum achieved record highs as well, following similar trajectories in December.
  • Despite this, on-chain volume remains at $3.9 billion, its lowest level since July 2025, even as transactions nearly doubled.
  • This means that the implied average transaction value per address stands at ~$2,100, down from $8,600 during the August peak.
• The disconnect between record transaction counts and depressed on-chain volume points to a shift in network composition.
  • The spike in new addresses, now at levels not seen since January 2018, combined with low average transaction values, suggests increased low-value activity, likely from bots, rather than any notable capital deployment.
  • Year-end tax loss harvesting may also be a contributing factor, as the transaction spike accelerated sharply in the final two weeks of December, coinciding with the deadline to materialize losses on depreciated memecoins and altcoins.
  • The low average transaction values are consistent with participants offloading small, nearly worthless token positions, fitting the profile of tax-motivated selling.