Data & Insights: ETH Flips BTC (in Active Addresses)

Clearer Skies Ahead

• Ethena's USDe supply has fallen to $6.3 billion, down nearly 60% from its peak just three months ago.
  • The synthetic dollar stablecoin has now retreated to levels last seen in July 2024, while Sky's USDS recorded a new all-time high supply of over $6.5 billion, surpassing USDe.
  • Meanwhile, total stablecoin supply remains near record levels, suggesting capital has flowed away from USDe and into USDS.
• One of the reasons for the USDe exodus can be traced directly to the October 10 market crash.
  • During the chaos, USDe briefly fell to and traded at $0.65 on Binance, though on-chain DeFi markets like Curve maintained the peg near $0.99 and redemptions processed at $1 parity through Ethena's smart contracts.
  • The price discrepancy was isolated to Binance, which lacked direct dealer relationships for USDe arbitrage and referenced its own illiquid order book rather than deeper liquidity pools.
  • The optical “de-peg”, combined with cascading liquidations of leveraged USDe positions, likely triggered panic redemptions that continued through year-end.
• USDe’s decline also has a structural reason: yield compression.
  • USDe's yield depends on the funding rates of ETH perpetual futures, which collapsed alongside risk appetite after the October 10 crash. 
  • Meanwhile, Sky's sUSDS attracted billions in inflows as users rotated toward overcollateralized models with a more predictable yield offering.
  • USDS yields 4% annually, funded by Sky’s protocol revenue, which is a simpler value proposition compared to USDe's derivatives-dependent returns.

Signs of Degen Life

• Pump.fun daily revenue averaged $1.4 million over the past week, which is 50% higher than the previous week’s average.
  • In accordance with this, the number of token graduations has also reached a three-month high while Solana active addresses climbed to 3.95 million, up 17% from the start of the month.
  • The uptick follows a subdued holiday period where daily revenue bottomed after the new year holiday period ended, suggesting renewed retail engagement rather than isolated memecoin speculation.
• Despite the recent uptick, pump’s revenue remains over 75% below its record highs it saw in January 2025 ATH.
  • Although if daily revenue were to sustain above these latest figures for the next few weeks, it would confirm renewed trading appetite among Solana’s on-chain trading cohort.
• On the other hand, LetsBonk, a competing launchpad, also recorded elevated activity this past week, suggesting platform-agnostic trading activity and interest rather than market dynamics specific to pump.fun.

Slipping Mindshare

• Tweet volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum trended lower throughout 2025, with both major cryptocurrencies ending the year below their January starting points. Bitcoin closed around 180k tweets versus peaks of 500k, while Ethereum fell to 62k from highs of 260k.
  • This decline in social media mentions has historically correlated with price performance and market sentiment, suggesting waning public interest in crypto discussions.
• The mindshare exodus reflects broader attention shifts in the technology landscape, with AI increasingly capturing the spotlight that crypto once commanded.
  • Many crypto projects now incorporate AI features to remain relevant, acknowledging the narrative shift that has captivated both developers and investors.
  • The competition for attention has intensified as AI applications demonstrate more immediate utility to mainstream audiences compared to blockchain infrastructure.
• These diminished engagement metrics present a potential opportunity for the crypto ecosystem.
  • Tweet volume has proven to be a leading indicator of retail interest and potential market movements, making current low levels particularly noteworthy for contrarian investors.
  • The reduced noise and speculation could allow genuine innovation to develop without the distraction of hype cycles.

The quiet flippening 

• The number of active addresses on Ethereum surpassed Bitcoin for the first time in December 2025, with Ethereum now reaching 750k daily active addresses compared to Bitcoin's 650k on a 7-day moving average basis.
  • This historic crossover has remained sustained through January, marking a fundamental shift in network utilization patterns between the two largest cryptocurrencies.
• The milestone reflects the different roles these networks play as Bitcoin primarily serves the role of a store of value, while Ethereum functions as a programmable blockchain supporting diverse applications.
• Ethereum's broader functionality continues to attract institutional deployment, particularly in the real-world asset (RWA) tokenization space, where financial institutions are building infrastructure.
  • The network's smart contract capabilities enable complex financial instruments and automated processes that Bitcoin's more limited scripting cannot support.
  • This trend appears set to continue as institutions increasingly choose Ethereum for tokenization projects, DeFi integrations, and other blockchain-based financial services.
• The sustained nature of this address activity flip could indicate a structural shift in how blockchain networks are being utilized.
  • While Bitcoin maintains its position as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap and remains dominant for value storage, Ethereum is capturing the majority of programmable blockchain activity.
  • The growing gap between the two networks' active addresses could accelerate as more financial products and services launch on Ethereum, creating network effects that drive further adoption.

New Year's Discrepancy

• The DEX to CEX spot trading volume ratio closed 2025 at 17.5%, essentially flat from January's 17.4%, despite volatile on-chain conditions throughout the year as various narratives competed for trader attention.
  • While spot DEX volumes remained range-bound, decentralized perpetual futures exploded higher. The DEX to CEX futures ratio surged from 6.3% in January 2025 to 17% by year-end, nearly tripling its market share.
• The perpetual protocol landscape underwent a significant transformation, with Hyperliquid emerging as the dominant force, capturing over $1 trillion in monthly volume by September 2025.
  • Lighter and other emerging perp venues contributed to this growth, collectively offering deep liquidity, intuitive user experiences, and sophisticated trading tools that rival established centralized exchanges.
  • Total monthly perps volume across decentralized venues reached $1.5 trillion during peak months, demonstrating that traders increasingly trust on-chain infrastructure for leveraged trading.
• This divergence between spot and perpetuals adoption patterns reveals important market dynamics.
  • While spot DEX trading has potentially reached a temporary plateau around 17-18% market share, perpetuals represent the new frontier for decentralized exchange growth.
  • The rapid adoption of decentralized perps suggests traders value the transparency, self-custody, and composability these platforms offer, particularly for more sophisticated trading strategies.