Data & Insights: Polymarket Records; Onchain Oil

Polymarket’s $10B Milestone

• Polymarket saw $10.57 billion in trading volume in March 2026, its first month above the $10 billion mark
  • This represents a 33% increase from the prior month and a 2.5x multiple of the October 2024 US election peak
  • Q1 2026 total volume reached ~$26.2 billion, up over 90% compared to last quarter
• Meanwhile, Polymarket US, which launched in Q4 2025 under CFTC no-action relief, hit over $700 million in March.
  • This represents a 167% MoM increase and now accounts for 6.6% of total platform volume, having more than doubled its share year-to-date.
  • This growth comes despite the platform still being invite-only for the time being and limited to sports markets.
  • This means the geopolitics and crypto verticals, which drive a significant share of global Polymarket volume, remain entirely untapped in its US product
  • Opening access to these categories for Polymarket US users could accelerate the platform’s growth.
• On a related topic, the CFTC had also filed lawsuits last week against the states of Arizona, Connecticut, and Illinois over their attempts to regulate prediction markets, signaling that federal preemption is the likely regulatory framework ahead.

CME Openly Uninterested

• Average daily CME Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) fell to under $8 billion in March 2026 and $7.2 billion in early April, the lowest reading since February 2024.
  • OI has also been declining for five consecutive months since November 2025.
  • Meanwhile, CME monthly volume also dropped to $163 billion in March, down nearly 50% from its January 2025 peak.
• One probable reason for these declines is the unwinding of the basis trade.
  • The CME-spot ETF basis trade (buy spot ETF, short CME futures, collect the spread) was the primary driver of institutional CME positioning
  • The annualized basis compressed in recent months as BTC fell from its highs above $120K to under $70K.
  • When the basis yield drops below the risk-free rate plus capital costs, the trade is dead as leveraged funds unwind.
  • As a result, CME has also lost its position as the largest Bitcoin futures exchange to Binance for the first time since November 2023.
• It is also worth noting that CME’s April OI figure is approaching the February 2024 level, which was before the spot ETF launch rally
  • If CME OI falls below that threshold, the market will have fully round-tripped the entire institutional positioning layer that built up around the ETF narrative
  • The key metric to watch is the CME basis rate relative to short-term Treasury yields. At ~5% basis versus ~4.5% risk-free, there's essentially zero incentive to run the trade with its associated capital requirements and counterparty risk for now.

Will DAT Sell?

• Strategy has continued to aggressively accumulate bitcoin, with its treasury now sitting at approximately 760,000 BTC, worth roughly $50.9 billion at current prices. 
  • Yet the stock has declined roughly 23% year-to-date, marginally underperforming Bitcoin itself. The dynamic is expected for a vehicle designed to offer leveraged exposure to the asset.
• MSTR functions as a reflexive beta to Bitcoin, meaning it tends to amplify moves in both directions. When Bitcoin rallies strongly, the stock trades at a premium to net asset value, allowing management to issue equity via at-the-market offerings and use the proceeds to buy more Bitcoin. This becomes a self-reinforcing loop that works in bull conditions.
  • That mechanism, however, depends on a sustained mNAV premium. With mNAV now hovering near 1x, the accretive case for continued equity issuance weakens materially. At parity, issuing stock to buy Bitcoin is no longer dilution-adjusted accretive.
• This creates an interesting structural argument for smaller Digital Asset Treasury companies. For DATs holding meaningful crypto positions but trading at or below NAV, the more capital-efficient trade may be to sell crypto holdings to fund equity buybacks. At sub-1x mNAV, buying back stock is mathematically equivalent to buying Bitcoin at a discount.
  • Strategy itself is unlikely to pursue this path. The scale of its holdings means any disposal would carry significant sentiment risk and potential second-order price effects across the broader market.
  • Smaller DATs, however, face no such constraint and the logic is harder to dismiss.

Oil's Running Hot

• As Middle East tensions continue to rattle global markets, oil has emerged as one of the most actively traded assets on Hyperliquid. 
  • WTI crude (xyz:CL) and Brent crude (xyz:BRENTOIL) have climbed to the top of the daily HIP-3 volume rankings, collectively outpacing equity index products like the S&P 500 and XYZ100 that had previously anchored the chart.
• HIP-3 assets, Hyperliquid's permissionless perpetuals framework for real-world assets, now account for nearly 40% of the platform's total daily perp volume, which has been running in the high single-digit billions.
  • The dominance of oil within that cohort speaks to a specific utility around traditional assets onchain. HIP-3 provides traders with a platform to express directional views and hedge exposure amid geopolitical developments when traditional venues like the CME are closed. 
• There is also a reflexive dynamic that will lead to positive feedback loops. As oil volume on Hyperliquid grows, liquidity deepens, bid-ask spreads tighten, and the venue becomes more functional for larger sizes. In turn, it attracts more sophisticated participants. Early volume begets better execution, which begets more volume.
  • The directional signal has been clear as real-world asset volatility is increasingly finding an outlet onchain, with Hyperliquid capturing a meaningful share of that flow.

USDT Over USDC

• Crypto card monthly volume reached $600 million in March 2026, more than tripling from $187 million a year prior. The steady climb reflects growing adoption of crypto-linked debit and prepaid cards, which allow users to spend digital assets at point-of-sale without routing through traditional off-ramp infrastructure. 
  • This has become a meaningful friction-reduction for on-chain-native users, as traditional offramp methods have proved cumbersome.
• USDT has been the dominant settlement currency throughout this growth, consistently accounting for the majority of card volume. This tracks with Tether's entrenched position in emerging markets across Southeast Asia, Latin America, and Africa, where crypto cards often serve as a more accessible alternative to conventional banking rails.
  • However, USDT's market share has been gradually compressing. USDC has been gaining ground, driven largely by adoption in Western markets where regulatory clarity and institutional backing carry more weight with both issuers and users.
• The stablecoin composition of card volume is worth watching as a proxy for geographic and demographic shifts in who is actually using these products. A rising USDC share would suggest the user base is broadening beyond Tether's traditional strongholds.
  • Tether has also signaled intentions to introduce a US-focused stablecoin product. If that gains traction domestically, it could slow or reverse USDC's share gains in the region where its growth has been most pronounced.