Layer One: The year of the crypto IPO

Welcome to Layer One: the newsletter and podcast on the intersection of crypto and the real world. Hosted by Steven Gates and Kelvin Sparks, Layer One brings you inside the conversations driving blockchain forward.

Last episode we were joined by Santiago Santos, founder and CEO of Inversion Capital, to discuss his fundamentals-first investment thesis and how some major crypto projects could be significantly overpriced.

In this edition of the Layer One newsletter, we're applying his ideas to the wave of upcoming crypto company IPOs, and analyzing how last year's major public listings have performed.

18 major crypto IPOs slated for 2026, despite mixed fortunes for recent listings

Last summer, stablecoin issuer Circle completed a blockbuster IPO on the New York Stock Exchange. Trading kicked off with a 167% price surge: the largest ever day-one pop for a billion-dollar IPO. This proved the market’s appetite for crypto equities, leading to a wave of new listings. The trend has gathered pace into the new year, with a slew of crypto firms primed to go public in the coming months.

At least 18 digital asset comapnies are confirmed or rumored to be planning IPOs this year, across categories as diverse as institutional custody and cybersecurity.

Centralized exchanges are a dominant theme, with a third of the listings on our radar falling into that category. Foremost among them is US-based exchange Kraken, which formally filed a draft S-1 registration with the SEC last November. This trend isn’t just limited to US markets either: Thailand’s Bitkub is reportedly exploring plans to raise upwards of $200 million with a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Security, infrastructure and consumer services firms also feature heavily. These include some of the most recognizable brands in crypto: hardware wallet manufacturer Ledger and Consensys (the firm behind popular software wallet Metamask) among them.

This wave of high-profile crypto IPOs comes despite mixed fortunes for last year’s cohort. A broad pullback across crypto-adjacent equities has left some analysts questioning whether these are sustainable investments, or if they’re too closely tethered to the cyclical volatility of the crypto markets.

Several standout performers were able to weather this downside pressure better than the rest. Onchain lending market operator Figure (FIGR) held its IPO in September at a price of $25 per share, ultimately rallying to $78 during its January highs. The stock has since dropped by almost 50% but still remains well above its public offering price. And after its prodigious start, the aforementioned Circle (CRCL) achieved an all-time high almost ten times its $31 IPO price, and now trades at $112.

Other crypto stocks fared much worse. Gemini (GEMI) — the centralized exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins — currently sits at -70% from IPO price, having fallen sharply in the weeks following its September listing. Likewise, centralized exchange Bullish (BLSH) enjoyed an 89% first-day pop after its August listing, but ultimately dipped below IPO price last month.

Given these trends, some cautious pessimism towards future crypto IPOs is warranted. Without a clear BTC bull trend to keep risk-on liquidity flowing through digital asset markets, the downside risk for overvalued listings is exacerbated. Speaking to the Layer One hosts, Santos argued that some strategic undervaluation can be a net positive, as it “leaves room for new investors to participate in the upside.”

Time will tell if the next cohort of crypto IPOs heeds these warnings.

Podcast Recap: Santiago Santos' framework for surviving cycles

In the Headlines: The stories driving the conversation this week

• South Korean regulators have hit Bithumb with a six-month partial suspension for neglecting anti-money laundering requirements. This comes one month after a fat-finger error caused the exchange to accidentally distribute $43 billion in BTC to user accounts. The firm had been pursuing its own IPO since last year, but this process has been put on hold on account of its recent woes.
• Grayscale has launched its Avalanche staking ETF on the Nasdaq. The ETF, which trades under the ticker GAVA, allows holders to earn yield on the underlying AVAX tokens held in the fund. Grayscale — the largest digital asset management firm — has also been seeking its own public listing since last year, having filed with the SEC last November.
• The Winklevoss twins have reportedly moved $130 million in BTC to wallets associated with their Gemini exchange. It’s assumed that the brothers, early crypto investors whose BTC holdings are in an estimated $1.8 billion profit, intend to sell off a portion via the exchange. Their CEX Gemini was founded in 2023 using proceeds from bitcoin sales, and currently sits at a market cap of $1.02 billion.

Top of the Charts: Range of subsectors represented among upcoming IPOs, with CEXs leading the way

Keep up with the latest in tokenization, DeFi, and institutional adoption by subscribing to Layer One's weekly market insights.

Layer One is brought to you in collaboration with Avalanche.