The Daily: Bernstein sees bitcoin hitting $150K by mid-2027 amid 'debasement trade,' and more

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

Happy Wednesday! Core PCE landed in line at 3.3% in July, but a hotter headline print pushed September Fed hike odds to around 44% from 36%. Sygnum CIO Fabian Dori told The Block structural liquidity remains key for digital assets, while Capital.com's Daniela Hathorn flagged Jackson Hole as the next major macro risk for bitcoin.

In today's newsletter, Bernstein sees bitcoin hitting $150,000 amid the "debasement trade," Scott Bessent provides an additional macro catalyst for bitcoin, the SEC sends its crypto custody rule changes for White House review, and more.

Meanwhile, Tornado Cash developer Roman Storm's retrial has been pushed back to April 2027.

P.S. Don't forget to check out today's reader poll on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh later in the newsletter.

Bernstein sees bitcoin reaching $150,000 by mid-2027 amid 'debasement trade,' but cuts Strategy target to $350

Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein expect bitcoin to hit a new all-time high of $150,000 by mid-2027 under their base case, before peaking around $300,000 in 2029, arguing a broad "debasement trade" will add a macro tailwind.

• The analysts said the 40-year era of falling interest rates is over, with U.S. sovereign debt at $40 trillion and climbing, pushing policymakers toward currency debasement, which tends to lift scarce assets like bitcoin.
• Bernstein's thesis is also showing up in ETF trading, with Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas noting the "debasement trade" is starting to replace "AI mania" as bitcoin and gold funds reenter the top 10 most-traded ETFs and displace some semiconductor funds that dominated the rankings over the summer.
• In a more aggressive scenario, Bernstein sees bitcoin reaching $200,000 by mid-2027 and potentially $500,000 in 2029, while keeping its longer-term call of around $1 million by the end of 2033.
• Bernstein argued ETF demand and corporate treasury buying cushioned bitcoin's shallower 50% drawdown from its October peak, compared to the 75% to 90% declines of past cycles.
• The analysts also maintained their Outperform rating on Strategy but cut their price target to $350 from $450 on their updated cycle outlook and faster equity dilution, though that still implies 176% upside from Tuesday's close.
• Meanwhile, CryptoQuant analysts also said bitcoin has entered a bull market, but it needs to cross $83,000 for "official" confirmation.

'Altitude sickness can wait': Bitcoin's historic short squeeze, Bessent catalyst may signal bull-market reset, analysts say

Bitcoin's recent 23% surge, its best week since the November 2024 post-election rally, may signal a broader bull-market reset, according to analysts at K33 and Bitwise.

• K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde said much of the breakout came from forced buying, with a record $1.37 billion in shorts liquidated on Aug. 19, nearly double the prior daily high, before funding rates reset to neutral.
• Lunde also highlighted bullish technical signals, including bitcoin reclaiming its 50-, 100-, 200-day, and 200-week moving averages in just four days, and its options skew flipping bullish, with calls pricier than puts for the first time since September 2025, as additional signals that mirror prior bottoms.
• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan tied the move to two Scott Bessent catalysts: the Treasury's bond buybacks and his "economic onslaught" announcement against Iran's financial links.
• "The more the global financial system becomes a tool of geopolitical power, the more valuable a neutral financial network becomes," he said.

SEC sends crypto custody rule changes to White House for review

The Securities and Exchange Commission has sent a proposal to change its rules on how investment advisers custody digital assets to the White House for review.

• The agency said the rulemaking would clarify how advisers and investment companies can hold crypto for clients and "remove burdens" from certain outdated provisions no longer needed for investor protection.
• It marks the latest move in the SEC's crypto regulatory shakeup under Chair Paul Atkins, following its memecoin and staking guidance and last week's "Regulation Crypto Assets" offering regime proposal.
• Still pending is an anticipated innovation exemption, which Atkins has said would fast-track crypto products but has yet to materialize.

Revolut begins phased EURR stablecoin rollout in Denmark, Poland and Portugal

Crypto-friendly fintech Revolut has launched its first euro-pegged stablecoin, EURR, starting with a phased rollout to eligible customers in Denmark, Poland, and Portugal.

• The token is issued by a subsidiary of Stripe-owned Bridge, pegged to €1 and backed by reserves under MiCA rules.
• It is fully integrated into Revolut's retail app, with support across multiple blockchains and external wallets.
• Revolut called EURR "the first step" in its broader stablecoin strategy, with wider EEA availability and additional currency-pegged tokens planned for later this year.
• The launch continues Revolut's push to integrate crypto services, including connecting its Revolut X exchange to AI assistants such as Claude and Gemini last month.

Kalshi raised $1.12 billion via private equity offering since April, latest SEC filing shows

Prediction market Kalshi has raised about $1.12 billion through a private equity sale since April, out of a nearly $1.5 billion offering, its latest SEC filing shows.

• The total likely includes Kalshi's $1 billion Coatue-led Series F from May, which valued the firm at $22 billion, with reports this month of a fresh $750 million round at a $40 billion valuation.
• Kalshi remains the sector leader, reporting $40 billion in July trading volume, far ahead of Polymarket and Polymarket US's combined $12.9 billion.

In the next 24 hours

U.S. jobless claims data are released at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.

Bitcoin Asia kicks off in Hong Kong. ETH Belgrade continues. The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium also gets underway.

Reader poll

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Will he lean hawkish?

YES, HAWKISH

NO, DOVISH OR NEUTRAL

One click records your pick. We'll share the answer in a later edition.

*Congratulations to the 63% of you in last Wednesday's poll who correctly guessed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index would be higher than 46. It recorded a reading of 65 today, in "Greed" territory.

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