US midterms & crypto /w Anthony Scaramucci

Episode 47 of The Starting Block was hosted by The Block's Gareth Jenkinson, and joined live with SkyBridge Founder Anthony Scaramucci.

Key topics
• Prediction markets are inevitable; NBA joins CFTC deal while NFL holds out.
• Scaramucci's book traces US populist anger to China trade, war debt, and bank bailouts.
• Trump-era crypto regulation is positive but grift concerns remain; Clarity Act progress is key.
• Bitcoin should be $300,000 based on 30% of gold's market cap, Scaramucci argues.
• Saylor's Strategy holds 4% of Bitcoin supply; STRC is a safe higher-yield play.

Outline

00:00 - Show Introduction
01:40 - The Block Briefing
06:28 - Prediction Markets Debate
11:10 - Scaramucci's New Book
15:43 - Trump, Crypto & Regulation
18:52 - Codifying Crypto Rules
21:30 - Bitcoin Price Outlook
25:10 - AI Sector & SkyBridge
27:20 - Michael Saylor & Strategy
31:31 - 2027 Market Forecast
34:59 - Advice for Katie Zakaria

Summary
The conversation opened with reaction to the NBA signing a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC to work with Kalshi and Polymarket as their preferred prediction markets. The NFL, meanwhile, continues to holdout. Scaramucci called the expansion of prediction markets "inevitable," drawing parallels to the NFL's eventual acceptance of Las Vegas franchises. He praised prediction markets as superior forecasting tools compared to polls, pointing to their accuracy in calling Trump's 2024 election victory at 65-70% odds when polls showed a much tighter race. He cautioned retail participants to be careful, noting that most people lose money in these markets.

Scaramucci then outlined the thesis of his forthcoming book, tracing the roots of left- and right-wing populist anger in the US to three economic shocks: China's entry into the WTO as an emerging market that hollowed out American manufacturing, two decades of war in Afghanistan and Iraq funded by two tax cuts at a cost of $8 trillion, and the 2008 bank bailout in which 5,000 bankers received million-dollar-plus bonuses in the same year banks required a $1 trillion rescue. He argued this sequence of events, layered on top of $33 trillion in deficit spending since the Clinton era, created the conditions for Occupy Wall Street, the Tea Party, MAGA, and the Bernie Sanders movement alike. On crypto regulation, he said he is worried about the gains being reversed after the Trump administration but is hopeful that SEC chair Paul Atkins will codify enough rules, including via the Clarity Act, that a future hostile regulator cannot easily undo the progress. He argued Elizabeth Warren's anti-crypto positioning amounts to carrying water for the American Banking Association.

On Bitcoin, Scaramucci said he met Michael Saylor in October 2020, shortly after Saylor's first Bitcoin purchase, and that conversation pushed him to make SkyBridge's first major Bitcoin allocation. He called Saylor one of the smartest people he has ever met and a genuine revolutionary. He said Strategy has a fortress balance sheet and a competitive advantage through its NAV premium, and that STRC preferred shares, which SkyBridge owns, are a safe, higher-yielding way to ride what he calls the "orange tsunami." He argued Bitcoin should already be at $300,000 given macro conditions, with a 30% share of gold's roughly $25 trillion market cap implying a $7-8 trillion Bitcoin market. For 2027, he said geopolitical uncertainty, a potential war in Iran, and an energy supply shock that flipped rate expectations from two or three cuts to two or three hikes represent a 150-basis-point headwind, but that SEC rule-setting and real-world tokenization moves by institutions such as BlackRock and Kraken on NASDAQ should make it a good fundamental year for quality digital assets.

About the guest
Anthony Scaramucci is the Founder and Managing Partner of SkyBridge Capital, a global alternative investment firm he founded in 2005, and previously served as White House Communications Director under President Trump in 2017.