How a Kamala Harris presidency might impact bitcoin and the wider crypto sector

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris is now the presumptive Democratic Party nominee for president after the incumbent, Joe Biden, abruptly announced his withdrawal from the race last Sunday.

This development raises questions about how a potential Harris administration in the White House might approach bitcoin and the cryptocurrency sector as a whole.

Immediately following Biden's announcement, bitcoin briefly declined by 3% as markets adjusted their expectations regarding the possibility of a pro-crypto Trump victory in the November elections. The digital asset has since rallied back above the $67,000 mark, fuelled by anticipation surrounding Donald Trump's upcoming speech at Bitcoin 2024 in Nashville, Tennessee.

Kamala Harris presidency

With Harris' odds of winning the election in November rising this week to 29% after endorsements by top Democrats, crypto market participants are grasping for indicators that could hint at how a Harris presidency might impact the industry.

According to Bitfinex analysts, investors are so far adopting a cautious approach, until Harris' specific policies on cryptocurrency become clearer. For now, a tentative outline of her stance on crypto may be found in her prior policy stances on consumer protection and financial regulation.

"Harris' political positions suggest a focus on consumer protection and financial regulation, which might imply continued scrutiny of the crypto market," the analysts said.

Speaking to The Block, Bitfinex analysts suggested that Harris' stance on crypto is likely to continue the Biden administration's cautious approach, which "might not be immediately positive for the market." YouHodler Chief of Markets Ruslan Lienkha concurred with this view, stating that "since Harris is part of the current administration, we can assume that the policies of the past four years will continue into the next term."

However, Lienkha acknowledged the potential for slight changes in favor of crypto due to pre-election promises.

"There might be slight changes in favor of crypto due to potential pre-election promises as a result of competition with the Republican nominee, who has been actively seeking support from crypto enthusiasts," he said.

Could Harris change her stance on crypto?

On Tuesday, some intrigue arose after David Bailey, an organizer for Bitcoin 2024, noted that Harris was considering speaking at the event that is currently taking place in Nashville.

"We’re in talks with Kamala Harris campaign for her to speak at the conference. Would be very savvy of her to reset the Democrat positioning on the fastest growing voter block in the country. They’re making up their minds today," Bailey said in an X post. A day later, however, he said Harris would not be attending the conference, adding that "all eyes are now on Trump."

This follows on from a Politico report from earlier this week, which quoted prominent bitcoin enthusiast Mark Cuban as saying Harris could be "far more open to business, artificial intelligence, crypto, and government as a service."

In a hint that Harris could revise the current Democrat policy stances, Cuban added that "changing the policies changes the message and lets everyone know she is in charge and open, literally, for business."

Crypto industry reaching out to Kamala Harris

Crypto industry advocates remain cautiously hopeful that a Harris presidency might shift away from the Biden administration's policies and lead to a bipartisan consensus on establishing a regulatory framework for digital assets within the U.S.

On Monday, the Chamber of Digital Commerce, a prominent crypto lobbying group, reached out to Harris with a letter urging her to support the digital assets industry and select a running mate with a strong pro-crypto background.

"We respectfully call on you to advocate for the inclusion of pro-digital asset language in the party’s platform, select a vice-presidential candidate sophisticated in digital asset policy and engage with industry leaders," the lobbying group said.