Sen. Hagerty's draft stablecoin bill could shape legislation in 2025, TD Cowen says

U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty's draft stablecoin legislation could serve as an outline for future bills in 2025, investment bank TD Cowen said in a note on Monday.

Last week, the crypto-friendly Tennessee Republican unveiled a discussion draft of legislation to create a regulatory framework for stablecoins. It includes a provision that says issuers that go over a $10 billion threshold may get a waiver from their federal regulator to then stay under their state's jurisdiction. The draft legislation also includes language around maintaining reserves on a one-to-one basis with reserves that have U.S currency. 

"This draft bill should form the foundation for the legislation that we expect Congress to enact next year. This is even more likely if Trump wins as Hagerty is close to the former president,"  TD Cowen Washington Research Group's Jaret Seiberg wrote.

Hagerty is reportedly a potential contender for a role within Republican candidate Donald Trump's cabinet if he wins, either in a national security role or, as Punchbowl News reported in July, as Treasury secretary. Hagerty also is a member of the Senate Banking Committee, which has jurisdiction over key agencies, including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.  

Hagerty said his draft stablecoin bill is very similar to work being done by House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry, R-N.C., and Maxine Waters, D-Calif. Waters and McHenry have been working on their bill over the last two years. The bill advanced out of the Republican-led committee last year but has not gained much traction. At the time, Waters called the bill "deeply problematic" due to a provision that allows state regulators to approve stablecoin issuances without Federal Reserve input.

Bipartisan consensus over which regulators have oversight will be vital, Seiberg said. 

"Key will be finding bipartisan agreement on which regulators will oversee stable coins. If Trump wins, prospects for this bill are even higher," Seiberg wrote in Monday's note.

Momentum on a stablecoin bill might still be picked up before the end of the year. Last month, during a congressional hearing, Waters said she wants to "strike a grand bargain on stablecoins" before the end of the year.