The Daily: How a Trump or Harris win could impact crypto, Mt. Gox moves billions of dollars in bitcoin and more
Quick Take
- A U.S. presidential election victory for Donald Trump could see Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht pardoned and SEC Chair Gary Gensler fired, while the impact of a Kamala Harris win is less clear.
- Defunct bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox transferred approximately 32,371 BTC, worth $2.2 billion, to unmarked wallets late Monday, according to the onchain analytics platform Arkham.
- Bitcoin mining difficulty jumped 6.2% to hit an all-time high of 101.7 trillion on Tuesday, following the network’s record seven-day moving average hash rate of over 750 EH/s last week.
- The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Happy U.S. Election Day! In today's newsletter, we take a fresh look at the impact a win for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could have on crypto, Mt. Gox moves billions of dollars in BTC, bitcoin mining difficulty breaks 100 trillion and more.
Meanwhile, analysts outline how to monitor what "smart money" is doing in crypto as the U.S. election results start to come in.
Let's get started.
If Trump wins and fulfills his promises, Ross Ulbricht will be free and Gary Gensler out of a job
A U.S. presidential election victory for Donald Trump could see Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht pardoned and SEC Chair Gary Gensler fired, while the impact of a Kamala Harris win is less clear.
- Donald Trump repositioned himself as a pro-crypto candidate this year with additional promises, including turning the U.S. into a bitcoin mining "powerhouse," creating a national strategic bitcoin reserve and easing regulations for the industry.
- More recently, Trump also became involved in a crypto project backed by his sons called World Liberty Financial, which aims to provide DeFi lending and borrowing services before eventually moving into tokenized real estate.
- In contrast, Harris' stance has been more vague, making her first public statement about crypto in September when she said the U.S. would invest in blockchain technology under her leadership.
- In October, her campaign team said she would develop a regulatory framework to protect digital asset users without putting forward any detailed policies.
- Analysts at Bernstein expect bitcoin to rise to $80,000 to $90,000 if Trump wins while predicting a drop to $50,000 if Harris prevails, though its earlier estimates were lower.
- Meanwhile, others like Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believe crypto will benefit regardless of who wins the election.
Mt. Gox moves $2.2 billion worth of bitcoin to unmarked wallets
Defunct bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox transferred approximately 32,371 BTC, worth $2.2 billion, to unmarked wallets late Monday, according to the onchain analytics platform Arkham.
- The move is the largest from Mt. Gox in months, following a smaller 500 BTC transfer last week.
- It's unclear if the latest Mt. Gox transfer is part of ongoing creditor repayments following its 2014 security breach, though similar moves have preceded payouts via exchanges like Bitstamp and Kraken.
- Last month, Mt. Gox announced that it is postponing its repayment deadline from Oct. 31, 2024, to Oct. 31, 2025.
Bitcoin mining difficulty breaks through 100 trillion for the first time
Bitcoin mining difficulty jumped 6.2% to hit an all-time high of 101.7 trillion on Tuesday, following the network's record seven-day moving average hash rate of over 750 EH/s last week.
- Bitcoin mining difficulty is not expressed in specific units. It's a relative measure of how hard it is to mine a block compared to the easiest possible level.
- Difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks — roughly two weeks — to maintain an average block time of 10 minutes, regardless of how many miners are actively mining.
- Despite a challenging environment post-halving, bitcoin miners appear to be collectively ramping up their hash power as surviving operators — dominated by U.S. public miners — begin to deploy new capacity, upgrade their mining rigs and consolidate market share.
Top Daos.fun 'memefunds' see market caps tank
Major "memefunds" on Daos.fun, including "ai16z" and "Norm Capital," have seen market caps drop by over 80% in the past week, with analysts suggesting the initial hype surrounding the funds may be fading quickly.
- Daos.fun, launched in September, is a Solana-based platform, currently in beta, that offers a memecoin take on traditional hedge funds, allowing users to create and join VC-style "memefunds" represented by their respective tokens.
- However, the discrepancies between their market caps and actual net asset values suggest potential liquidity issues for holders.
- For example, the market cap of "ai16z" fell from $130 million to $23.8 million but still maintains a stark premium to its assets under management of just $283,150.
- Concerns have been raised about the misleading market cap metrics, contributing to investor confusion and volatility.
ZachXBT's unintentionally created token reaches $3.4 million market cap
A token unintentionally created by blockchain sleuth ZachXBT has reached a $3.4 million market cap.
- ZachXBT previously launched an NFT collection on the Base network via the Zora protocol.
- However, the NFTs were automatically converted to ERC-20 tokens that traders are now speculating on.
- ZachXBT said the Zora interface didn't indicate that minting an open-edition NFT would also create meme tokens.
- The blockchain sleuth expressed frustration over the activity and hinted at potentially diluting the token's value through additional mints or altering the NFT artwork.
In the next 24 hours
- Eurozone PPI figures are released at 4 a.m. ET on Wednesday. U.S. mortgage data follow at 7 a.m.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde will speak at 9 a.m.
- Money Expo Qatar kicks off in Doha.
Never miss a beat with The Block's daily digest of the most influential events happening across the digital asset ecosystem.
Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.
© 2024 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.