Polymarket bettors see Lutnick as Treasury Secretary favorite after Musk endorsement

Quick Take

  • The odds of Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick becoming Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary have increased on Polymarket following Elon Musk’s endorsement, placing him slightly ahead of hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, seen as the other current favorite. 
  • While Bessent’s views on crypto are largely unclear, Lutnick is a vocal proponent of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. 
  • Many top crypto executives have privately lobbied Trump to appoint Lutnick, according to a New York Times report. 

President-elect Trump has announced many major Cabinet appointments since his reelection to the Presidency on November 5, but one key position remains unfilled: Secretary of the Treasury. 

One leading favorite for the position is Scott Bessent, an American investor and hedge fund manager known for once being the top investor for liberal megadonor George Soros. Trump has called Bessent "one of the most brilliant men on Wall Street" and met with Bessent at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Friday, according to the Wall Street Journal

However, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick, an outspoken Bitcoin advocate whose company serves as a custodian for billions of dollars worth of Tether's reserves, is also reportedly jockeying for the position. The New York Times reported that several leading crypto executives, including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, and executives at Circle, have been in contact with Trump's transition team, likely lobbying for Lutnick's appointment. 

While other names have been floated — the WSJ reported on Friday that Trump was "irritated" by the aggressive campaigning on behalf of Lutnick and Bessent — Polymarket bettors now see the two men as having nearly equal odds of becoming the next Treasury Secretary, with a slight edge to Lutnick. 

Lutnick currently has the edge with 49% odds as of Sunday morning Eastern time, while Bessent trails behind at 45%. In third place with merely 4% is Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. Trade Representative in the Trump administration from 2017 to 2021, with other candidates' odds at 2% or less. 

Lutnick's odds have grown significantly over the past day; his odds were around 20% for most of Saturday before skyrocketing early Sunday due to recent reporting. Bets on the treasury secretary have traded over $1 million in volume, according to Polymarket. 

The increase also corresponds with Elon Musk's endorsement of Lutnick on X. "My view fwiw is that Bessent is a business-as-usual choice, whereas [Lutnick] will actually enact change. Business-as-usual is driving America bankrupt, so we need change one way or another," the X owner wrote


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About Author

Zack Abrams is a writer and editor based in Brooklyn, New York. Before coming to The Block, he was the Head Writer at Coinage, a Web3 media outlet covering the biggest stories in Web3. The story he co-reported on Do Kwon won a 2022 Best in Business Journalism award from SABEW. Other projects included a deep dive into SBF's defense based on exclusive documents and unveiling the identity of the hacker behind one of 2023's biggest crypto hacks — so far. He can be reached via X @zackdabrams or email, [email protected].