Bitcoin profit-taking remains low, suggesting the rally could continue: CryptoQuant

Profit-taking in bitcoin remains low even as the cryptocurrency reached a new all-time high above $126,000 this week, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin holders' total net realized profits over the past 30 days total 0.26 million BTC (about $30 billion), roughly 50% below July’s 0.53 million BTC ($63 billion) and well short of the $78 billion and $99 billion peaks seen in March and December 2024, respectively, CryptoQuant said in a Wednesday report. Low realized profits suggest market participants are holding rather than cashing out, a pattern the firm said implies "bitcoin may continue to rally, and that a top is still not on the horizon."

On an annual basis, CryptoQuant noted that net realized profits are still trending upward — a metric historically tied to rising price momentum.

"As long as there's positive momentum on realized profits (holders taking profit at higher levels), it indicates that prices may trend upward. In the past, bull markets have ended as holders sell into lower realized profits," Julio Moreno, CryptoQuant’s head of research, told The Block.

Moreno added that when net realized profits begin to decline, it typically signals that new buyers are selling rapidly and realizing losses that exceed the profits of earlier holders.

Short-term holders recently realized gains at margins of only 2% — well below the 8% levels typically linked to market tops — while long-term holders’ realized margins stand near 129%, versus extreme peaks of around 300% (or roughly 4× returns), CryptoQuant said.

Spending by "OG" holders — addresses holding bitcoin for over a decade — also remains relatively low. Only 5,000 BTC were moved from these wallets in the last 30 days, half the amount sold in prior peaks in March and December 2024, and 29% below May 2025 levels, the firm noted.

Overall, low realized profits and low long-term holder activity suggest little sign of a market top forming, according to CryptoQuant.

Last week, CryptoQuant projected that bitcoin’s rally could continue into the fourth quarter, potentially targeting a range of $160,000 to $200,000 if demand holds strong. JPMorgan analysts also weighed in, saying bitcoin is significantly undervalued compared to gold, implying upside toward $165,000 — driven by retail investors embracing the "debasement trade" via ETF inflows.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $123,650, up 2.4% in the past 24 hours, per The Block's bitcoin price page.