Standard Chartered says bitcoin sell-off likely over, eyes year-end rally

Bitcoin's recent correction appears to have run its course, according to Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research Geoffrey Kendrick, who says the decline resembles earlier drawdowns of nearly identical magnitude over the past two years.

In a Tuesday note, Kendrick said the latest drop — though faster and more painful — matches the third major sell-off in the current cycle, pointing to chart patterns showing similar percentage pullbacks.

"It is a simple argument, but the best ones often are," he wrote.

Bitcoin price chart

Source: Standard Chartered

Kendrick added that several market indicators have reset to extreme levels. One example is MicroStrategy’s net asset value multiple, or mNAV — a metric comparing the company's market cap with the marked-to-market value of its bitcoin holdings — which had fallen back to 1.0. He said these "absolute zero" readings suggest the market has hit a bottom.

"I think this is enough to signify the sell-off is over and to eventually disprove those who think the halving cycle remains valid," Kendrick wrote. "A rally into year-end is my base case."

Earlier this month, Kendrick reiterated his view that bitcoin’s drop below $100,000 may be the "LAST ONE EVER." But bitcoin still fell from above $105,000 to below $90,000 last week, erasing all of its year-to-date gains. It has since recovered slightly and is trading around $93,500, according to The Block’s bitcoin price page.

Bitcoin briefly touched about $89,420 earlier today — its lowest since February. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard said market depth has fallen about 30% since the Oct. 10 record liquidation event, making prices highly sensitive to even modest selling. He added that while a dip toward the mid-$80,000s is possible based on options data, current levels or a rebound appear more likely.

"When liquidity is this thin, it takes far less capital to push the market in either direction, and when you layer leverage on top, volatility becomes inevitable," Sondergaard said.

Earlier today, analysts told The Block that bitcoin must reclaim the $95,000–$100,000 level to avoid further structural weakening as onchain stress and ETF outflows have intensified.

Kendrick had previously projected that bitcoin would reach $200,000 by year-end. When asked today whether he still holds that target, Kendrick declined to comment. His longer-term forecast, made earlier this year, sees bitcoin reaching $500,000 by 2028 on the back of growing investor access and declining volatility.