Trump names crypto-friendly Kevin Warsh as pick for Fed chair

President Donald Trump announced Kevin Warsh as his pick to lead the Federal Reserve, confirming speculation that intensified overnight as prediction markets sharply shifted in his favor.

"I am pleased to announce that I am nominating Kevin Warsh to be the CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM," Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, highlighting his prior service as a Federal Reserve governor, his current role as a Hoover Institution fellow and Stanford Graduate School of Business lecturer, and his work as a partner at Duquesne Family Office alongside Stanley Druckenmiller.

"I have known Kevin for a long period of time, and have no doubt that he will go down as one of the GREAT Fed Chairmen, maybe the best," Trump added. "On top of everything else, he is 'central casting,' and he will never let you down. Congratulations, Kevin!"

Warsh had emerged as the clear frontrunner ahead of the announcement, with Polymarket traders pricing his odds at 95% late Thursday, up from 39% earlier in the day. His implied probability on Kalshi also climbed to 96%, following the president's confirmation that he would announce his pick on Friday morning at the premiere of first lady Melania Trump's self-titled documentary last night.

Warsh, 55, previously served on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors from 2006 to 2011 under Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, and formerly worked as a banker at Morgan Stanley, making him a well-known figure in U.S. economic policymaking circles.

President Trump's formal nomination ends weeks of speculation over his pick, though Warsh still requires Senate confirmation before he can begin a four-year term and officially replace current chair Jerome Powell, whose tenure is scheduled to end in May.

Warsh's bitcoin views and crypto investments

Warsh's comments on bitcoin at the Hoover Institution’s Inflation is a Choice event last July have drawn particular attention as digital asset markets digest the nomination. During that event, he rejected the notion that bitcoin poses a systemic threat to the Federal Reserve's ability to manage the economy and instead described it as an asset that could help inform policymakers.

"Bitcoin doesn't trouble me," Warsh said at the time. "I think of it as an important asset that can help inform policymakers when they're doing things right and wrong. It is not a substitute to the dollar. I think it can often be a very good policeman for policy."

Warsh also pointed to the concentration of global engineering talent in the United States, arguing that building emerging technologies domestically creates long-term economic advantages. "It's just the newest, coolest software that will provide us the ability to do things that we could never have done before," he said.

Warsh has also been connected to the crypto industry through early investments in an algorithmic stablecoin project, Basis, and through advisory and investor roles with crypto index manager Bitwise.

However, Warsh's stance on digital assets remains nuanced and he has at times expressed support for central bank digital currency frameworks — something President Trump has vocally opposed and pledged would not happen during his election campaign.

Warsh has been widely viewed as a monetary policy hawk. Analysts pointed to his record at the Fed, where he repeatedly emphasized inflation risks even during periods of economic stress, as evidence of his commitment to price stability. "If Trump wants someone easy on inflation, he got the wrong guy in Kevin Warsh," Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong said.

At the same time, Warsh has recently argued for significant changes to the Federal Reserve's framework. He has called for a structural overhaul of the central bank, including a reassessment of the Treasury-Fed relationship, and has criticized the use of the Fed's balance sheet as a tool he says has disproportionately benefited Wall Street — signaling a strong stance against quantitative easing. Warsh has also pointed to productivity gains driven by artificial intelligence as potentially disinflationary, which he has cited as a basis for supporting rate cuts under certain conditions.

Some market participants said that the combination gives him credibility to push for easing despite his history, with economist and crypto trader Alex Kruger saying there is "unique credibility in a former inflation hawk advocating for aggressive cuts."

Trump's final shortlist had been widely understood to include National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock fixed-income chief Rick Rieder. 

Prediction markets had earlier favored Rieder, who led pricing in recent days, before odds shifted sharply toward Warsh in the hours ahead of the announcement.

With Warsh officially named, and markets reacting to his profile and policy stances, attention is turning to how he will potentially steer monetary policy amid competing priorities on inflation, growth, and financial innovation.