Standard Chartered sees Arbitrum at $10 by end-2030, up 70-fold

Standard Chartered initiated coverage of Arbitrum’s (ARB) token with a $10 price target for the end of 2030, saying the network is set to benefit from the growing use of blockchain infrastructure by traditional financial firms.

Arbitrum traded at about $0.13 on Tuesday, down 1.06% over the previous 24 hours, according to The Block's ARB price page. The target implies a roughly 70-fold increase from that level, with interim targets set at $0.50 by end-2026, $1.50 by end-2027, $3.50 by end-2028, and $6.50 by end-2029.

In a note to clients, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research Geoff Kendrick said the bank expects ARB to outperform bitcoin and ether over the forecast period. The bank projected ether to reach $4,000 by end-2026 and $40,000 by end-2030, while forecasting bitcoin to reach $100,000 by end-2026 and $500,000 by end-2030.

Arbitrum's growing role 

Kendrick highlighted Arbitrum’s role as an enterprise infrastructure provider helping traditional financial institutions move assets onchain. Under the Arbitrum Expansion Program, the network receives a rolling fee equal to 10% of net protocol revenue from external chains using its technology stack.

"We see digital assets transitioning from a state where revenue is not yet relevant to one where revenue is critical – Arbitrum’s business model is heavily focused on revenue, and as such, the ARB token should benefit," Kendrick wrote. 

Following the July 1 launch of Robinhood Chain, Standard Chartered estimates Arbitrum will receive about $5 million in AEP fees in September at the current run rate. Robinhood Chain’s daily fee revenue averaged $2.8 million in the first two weeks of September, according to the bank, while Arbitrum’s total monthly revenue is now more than five times its level before the chain’s launch.

"The early success of Robinhood Chain increases the probability that similar TradFi chains will also launch via the Arbitrum tech stack, in our view," Kendrick said. "This raises the likelihood of future AEP fees. We also see significant potential for markets to re-rate ARB’s multiple to take it closer to Layer 1 multiples"

Kendrick’s valuation case also rests on the expansion of tokenized assets. According to Standard Chartered, tokenized assets will reach $4 trillion by end-2028, up from roughly $340 billion. Tokenized equities could grow in tandem to $750 billion over the same period.

Meanwhile, the bank flagged slower asset tokenization, competition from other blockchains, and ARB’s lack of direct value accrual as risks to its forecast. Kendrick also cited the DTCC's work on tokenized equities and pending U.S. rules, including the Clarity Act, which have not yet been passed.