Bettors doubting big time that Binance, FTX deal will close, prediction platform shows

Quick Take

  • Blockchain-based predictions market Polymarket puts odds of successful Binance takeover of FTX at just 22%.
  • Platform lets users bet on the question “Will Binance pull out of their FTX deal?” 

A blockchain-based predictions market is showing increasing skepticism that Binance will complete its non-binding deal to acquire the non-U.S. assets of rival exchange FTX as due diligence gets underway. 

Odds of a completed deal have fallen to 22% as of 10:40 a.m. ET from 47% two hours earlier on the Polymarket platform, which uses smart contracts to let users bet on event outcomes, such as the result of a presidential election. Users are being asked "Will Binance pull out of their FTX deal?"

The platform allows bets using the USDC stablecoin, and odds can react quickly to breaking news. While users gave Republicans as much of an 80% chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate in elections held on Tuesday, those odds fell to just 20% after results started to come in. 

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao told staff on Wednesday that a "good team" was handling the transaction to buy FTX.com. The surprise news has roiled crypto markets around the globe and prompted speculation about the regulatory response it could trigger. 





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