Bettors doubting big time that Binance, FTX deal will close, prediction platform shows

Quick Take

  • Blockchain-based predictions market Polymarket puts odds of successful Binance takeover of FTX at just 22%.
  • Platform lets users bet on the question “Will Binance pull out of their FTX deal?” 

A blockchain-based predictions market is showing increasing skepticism that Binance will complete its non-binding deal to acquire the non-U.S. assets of rival exchange FTX as due diligence gets underway. 

Odds of a completed deal have fallen to 22% as of 10:40 a.m. ET from 47% two hours earlier on the Polymarket platform, which uses smart contracts to let users bet on event outcomes, such as the result of a presidential election. Users are being asked "Will Binance pull out of their FTX deal?"

The platform allows bets using the USDC stablecoin, and odds can react quickly to breaking news. While users gave Republicans as much of an 80% chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate in elections held on Tuesday, those odds fell to just 20% after results started to come in. 

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao told staff on Wednesday that a "good team" was handling the transaction to buy The surprise news has roiled crypto markets around the globe and prompted speculation about the regulatory response it could trigger. 


Keep up with the latest news, trends, charts and views on crypto and DeFi with a new biweekly newsletter from The Block's Frank Chaparro

By signing-up you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy
By signing-up you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy

Disclaimer: The former CEO and majority shareholder of The Block has disclosed a series of loans from former FTX and Alameda founder Sam Bankman-Fried.

© 2023 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

About Author

Nathan Crooks is the U.S managing editor at The Block, based in Miami. He was previously at Bloomberg News for 12 years, where he helmed coverage of South Florida after roles as a breaking news editor and bureau chief in Caracas, Venezuela. He's interviewed presidents, government ministers and CEOs, and, besides crypto, has covered major news events on the ground from earthquakes to hurricanes to the Chilean mine rescue in 2018. Nathan, a native of Clarion, Pennsylvania, holds a bachelor's degree from the University of Toronto, where he completed a specialist in political science, and an MBA from American University in Washington, D.C.


To contact the editors of this story:
Walden Siew at
[email protected]
Christiana Loureiro at
[email protected]