The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will not approve a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund — at least, that's the opinion of the agency's former Office of Internet Enforcement chief, John Reed Stark.

"My take is that the current SEC will NOT approve a bitcoin spot ETF application for a range of compelling reasons," Stark wrote today on X (formerly Twitter).

However, Stark shared that if a Republican wins the White House in 2024, the SEC will likely decrease its crypto-enforcement efforts and "become far more receptive to approving a bitcoin spot ETF and far more likely to take other significant crypto-friendly regulatory actions."

Stark also claims that if the next President is a Republican, current SEC chair Gary Gensler "would likely resign," and Hester Peirce — known as "Crypto Mom" in the industry — could become acting chair, and "crypto-related SEC disruption would grind to a screeching halt."

SEC vs. crypto

The SEC has, in recent history, stepped up crypto-enforcement efforts.

Earlier this week, crypto exchange Bittrex settled with the agency for $24 million after being charged for operating as an unregistered exchange in April.

The SEC also filed a letter with the Southern District of New York on Wednesday seeking leave for an interlocutory appeal in the summary judgment order in the Ripple Labs case — widely seen as a partial defeat for the agency.

To date, the SEC has approved no spot Bitcoin ETF after years of attempts.