Grayscale sees crypto recovery tied to US 'soft landing'

Quick Take

  • The crypto market rebound can continue, if the U.S. economy achieves a “soft landing,” Grayscale said in a report.
  • Macro-economic factors are now the biggest risk to crypto valuations. 

Macro factors may now be the biggest risk to crypto valuations, and a continued rebound will depend on the ability of the U.S. economy to achieve the so-called "soft landing" that would avoid a recession, digital asset manager Grayscale said in a report Tuesday.

"If the economy stumbles or the Federal Reserve raises real rates further, the crypto recovery may pause over the near-term," Grayscale research director Zach Pandl said in the report

The Goldilocks recovery envisioned by the Fed consists of reaching the 2% inflation goal without a sharp increase in unemployment, something some critics argue will be difficult to achieve.

Bitcoin was mostly stagnant in July, but Pandl said major token valuations could catch up with the rally in other risky assets if economic data continues to support the soft landing thesis. 

Bitcoin as an alternative, non-sovereign money

"Until resolved, crypto markets may see more price volatility in alt-coins," he wrote. 

"Bitcoin specifically could also appreciate if the Fed decides to tolerate a long period of above-target inflation, given Bitcoin’s role as an alternative non-sovereign money system and alternative to gold as an inflation hedge," he added.

However, the research director stressed that "a soft landing is not assured, and is now increasingly a consensus view, and therefore already discounted to some degree by markets."

Bitcoin rose 2% over the past 24 hours to reach $29,459 at 9:00 a.m. ET, according to CoinGecko. The world's largest digital asset by market cap was pulled back above the $29,000 mark largely by MicroStrategy's Tuesday announcement that it was continuing to add to its holdings of the asset.

The firm said it may raise as much as $750 million through share sales and use some of the proceeds to buy even more BTC.

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