Strategy and its corporate copycats could add $330 billion to Bitcoin treasuries in next five years: Bernstein

Publicly listed companies worldwide could allocate up to $330 billion to bitcoin treasuries over the next five years, according to a research note from Bernstein. The projection follows growing institutional adoption and the success of bitcoin-heavy corporate treasuries like Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy.

Corporate bitcoin holdings have surged 160% since late 2023, driven largely by Strategy’s aggressive purchases. The company, led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, now owns approximately 555,450 BTC — over 2.6% of bitcoin’s total 21 million supply — acquired for around $38 billion since 2020.

Strategy has used a combination of equity and debt offerings as well as its corporate cashflows to fund its "21/21" capital plan, announced in Q4 2024. Last week, Strategy doubled its target to $84 billion in a new "42/42" roadmap, with further increases possible, Bernstein said. “In our bull case, we expect MSTR to hyper scale its capital strategy, utilizing ~ $124 billion for bitcoin acquisition,” Bernstein wrote in a May 5 report.

While Strategy is expected to lead corporate adoption, Bernstein anticipates that other firms with more than $100 million in cash and limited growth prospects could collectively allocate around $190 billion. An additional $11 billion may come from smaller, high-growth companies by 2026. Analysts said large corporations remain hesitant, but a $5 billion allocation from 10 firms by 2027 is possible if Bitcoin's value proposition strengthens.

However, the analysts noted that mimicking Strategy’s game plan won’t be easy for small businesses to implement due to risk standards and management. “MSTR’s edge lies in its financial innovation in building the bitcoin-linked fixed-income stack. Not every Bitcoin treasury will be successful simply replicating MSTR’s playbook, in our view.”

Bitcoin treasury catalysts

Strategy’s BTC buying blueprint has inspired several copycats to adopt the Bitcoin standard. Yet, Bernstein sees regulatory changes as the ultimate catalyst for mass capital flows to BTC as an asset class.

President Donald Trump has pledged to position the United States as the world’s crypto capital. Trump signed an executive order to establish a national Strategic Bitcoin Reserve using BTC gathered from criminal seizures. Lawmakers like Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis suggested bolstering U.S. sovereign holdings to 5% of bitcoin's total token supply. The current cache is about 198,012 BTC according to data from BitcoinTreasuries, making it the largest government stockpile. 

“Any fresh buy from the market to shore up the SBR beyond the seized bitcoin assets held would further accelerate sovereign adoption of bitcoin beyond institutions/corporates,” Bernstein stated on Monday.

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) rescinded SAB 121 in January, opening the path for banks to custody cryptocurrencies. Additionally, policymakers have progressed toward stablecoin legislation, although disagreements within the Democratic caucus have raised doubts.

“As the U.S. starts advocating a pro-crypto regime, other nations would also follow with regulatory clarity on digital assets. We believe U.S.-listed corporates would lead the adoption of BTC treasury, as the U.S. government seems resolute to push forward crypto regulations and bring the crypto industry to the mainstream,” Bernstein analysts said.

In April, the UK Treasury expressed interest in collaborating with the U.S. government to foster crypto industry growth. British authorities also released draft digital asset rules last week and sought public comments on the proposed provisions.